Film Room: Anton Frondell’s Game Has Grown, But How High Is the Ceiling?

From the final months of his draft-minus-one season to now, Anton Frondell has been a roller coaster. 

He generated tons of industry hype as a 16-year-old playing with Sweden's Under-18 national team, missed the last months of his draft-minus-one campaign due to an injury, returned to play in August but then missed more time at the beginning of the season.

Many were expecting him to play big minutes in the HockeyAllsvenskan from the start, but the injuries forced him to go back to the junior ranks to search for new momentum during the first months of the season. It caused him to not make the Swedish team for the U20s, a scenario that didn't seem all that likely just a few months ago based on his pre-season status as a top-3 challenger in his draft class.

But just when Frondell's stock was starting to seemingly trend down, with his ice time with Djurgårdens' men's team lagging behind, he came back with full force. His two-goal, four-point effort on January 27th marks a major shift in his season, with the last 11 regular season games rewarding him with staggering 19 points in total.

Frondell's regular season pace of 0.86 points-per-game puts him second in HockeyAllsvenkan history among draft-eligible skaters – first if you look at U18 seasons only –, besting what current NHL stars like David Pastrnak and William Nylander were able to accomplish on this front during their draft years. While his minutes wained towards the end during the playoffs, his seven points in 16 post-season games still played a sizeable role in Djurgårdens' championship run and the SHL promotion that followed.

The last few months of the season reaffirmed Frondell's status as a consensus top-five prospect in this year's class, with there being a good chance he ends up going in the top-three.

Here's why.

Off-puck and physicality

When we evaluated Frondell's tools, his physicality that ended up receiving the highest grade out of the bunch.

There are a few things that affected this evaluation. 

First, Frondell has always been physically mature beyond his age. At the NHL Scouting Combine, he measured at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, already having pretty much filled out his frame.

More importantly, though, Frondell's physical strengths also shows on the ice. Amongst his peers, he often looked freakishly powerful, capable of handling pressure with ease and moving opponents from pucks with sheer strength. And things didn't change all that much when he played against men in the HockeyAllsvenkan, with opponents still bouncing off of him. This is a player who projects to be able to protect the puck very well along the boards and crush opponents with his hits even in the NHL ranks

The physical strength ties into what is arguably Frondell's defining skill as a prospect: His ability to find space and create offence away from the puck.

There are very few, if any prospects in this year's class who not only possess a nose for the net as good as Frondell does, but also have the physical capabilities to force their will around the net-front area. Whether he crashes the net from the boards or is already there, his timing and ability to spin away from checks and win body position when it matters is second-to-none. When required, he also drops away from coverage to find opportunities higher in the slot area.

Frondell's explosion in terms of his production coincides with his pairing on the same line with fellow 2025 eligible top prospect Victor Eklund. Eklund's down low playmaking and Frondell's ability to make himself available as a passing target around the net-front proved to be a winning combination, with both benefitting offensively from playing with one another.

As such, when projecting Frondell's ideal NHL linemates, gifted playmakers who can take advantage of the Swedish centre's ability to play off of them rank at the top of the hierarchy. 

Shooting skill and budding dual-threat potential

As if the physical strength and the off-puck instincts weren't enough to guarantee Frondell having future success as a goal-scorer, he also happens to be on the premier shooters available in this year's draft. More precisely, in our draft guide, we ranked Frondell as having the second-best shot of his class.

When it comes to different releases, Frondell has pretty much all of them in his toolbox. The one-timer from the right flank has received the bulk of attention, and for a good reason. The sheer strength Frondell possesses shows in his one-timer, with him not needing to generate much power from his lower body to launch pucks with ferocity. It's not just about power, however, as he's also very skilled at placing his one-timers and picking corners from longer distances.

The one-timer is not the entire package, though, as Frondell has also proven himself as a very formidable scorer through his wristers, from either leg. The quickness of his release has been a treat to watch over the years, but he's now better at changing the release point at the last second, allowing him to curl the puck around defenders to create extra screen, too.

It's not always about the pure shooting skill, either. Frondell can be characterized as a naturally sneaky scorer who has a knack for finding weaknesses in goalies and exploiting them, also having plenty of deception behind his moves and decisions.

When you combine the shooting talent, the off-puck instincts and the physical strength, it's difficult to see a world where Frondell doesn't find a way to score at a solid rate in the NHL. It's arguably the most important part of his projection, giving him a significant way to impact the game even if the rest of his game doesn't end up developing as well as many are expecting.

It wouldn't be fair to characterize Frondell as a pure shooter, though. He's not one of the best playmakers in the class by any means, but showed enough in the form of intriguing flashes to warrant a slightly above-average grade in our guide. We were impressed by the moments of imaginativeness and small-area creativity, mixed in with the occasional manipulative play.

Overall, though, Frondell generated the bulk of his offence at both HockeyAllsvenskan and J20 levels through his individual chances instead of setting up others.

In my tracking data, he recorded playmaking results in line with what you could expect from an average draft-eligible forward playing at both levels. At the J20 level, the difference was very stark, even though it should be kept in mind that all of those games were played near the start of the season when he was still working his way in after the injuries.

True top-six driver or a complementary middle-six piece?

Cards on the table: Despite all of the formerly mentioned qualities, we've still consistently ranked Frondell lower – even significantly so – compared to the industry consensus. 

On our final board, we ended up placing him at 13, which is higher than where we had him during the first half of the season, but still an unusually low ranking for a player who could end up going in the top-three.

The reason is quite simple: We ultimately project Frondell as more of a complementary middle-six forward rather than as a true top-six centre in the NHL.

There are a few main reasons. For one, we wouldn't characterize Frondell as a particularly strong play-driver. Once the puck enters the offensive zone, he's a high-end finisher, but it's rarely going to be him who makes the required plays to get the puck to that end of the ice.

Skating plays a critical role in this. When Frondell gets going, his straight-line speed is perfectly acceptable and his first few steps are not bad, either. Agility has been a bigger issue for him, however, limiting his dynamism and ability to create for himself with the puck. There are some mechanical quirks, too, which even affect his handling from time to time; many have rated him as one of the best puckhandlers in the draft, and while the creativity is there, the mechanical breakdowns also extend to his ability to control the puck from time to time.

In transition, Frondell is guilty of not looking for his options before either dumping the puck or blindly passing. When combined with the fact that his abilities to escape pressure with his feet are limited, the end result is a player whose transition numbers have significantly dragged behind for two seasons now. Compared to Eklund, for example, it's a night and day difference.

Defensively, Frondell is also solid through his physical capabilities and solid tracking habits, but we also wouldn't rate him as highly in this area as many others do.

He should become a sufficient defensive player, but his defensive instincts aren't elite, which in combination with his average skating could prevent him from having the kind of impact many are projecting. It's also worth to note that whether in the professional ranks or with the national teams, Frondell was used very sparingly on the penalty kill throughout the season.

Frondell's progress over the new few years will be fascinating to follow.

Right now, he's a player with very distinct strengths but also quite clear weaknesses. The injury history makes things tricky, too, as there could be a world where him getting a healthy summer under his belt is going to lead to unexpected improvements that could put him on track to reach the kind of do-it-all top-six centre projection many are placing upon him.

As things stand right now, though, we see very significant risks around that kind of projection. Instead, we're imagining Frondell more as a complementary middle-six piece who can score 30 goals in the right environment, surrounded by skilled playmakers and players who can lift the burden of driving play and creating in transition from his shoulders. 

In the end, Frondell's floor is high. He's going to play NHL games in a noteworthy role, especially as he's going to get picked very high and be given all of the opportunities to succeed. There are high-end elements in his game, elements that give him a strong skill set to fall back upon even if he doesn't end up reaching his ultimate ceiling. In an ideal scenario, the team that ends up picking him not only recognizes where Frondell needs to improve to reach that ceiling but also has a clear development plan on how they can get him there.

If everything breaks right, he could make our ranking look foolish in a couple of years.