Film Room: Justin Carbonneau’s skills could make him a star — if he puts it all together

Most 18-year-old prospects have a handful of signature offensive tools that help them produce.

Justin Carbonneau has them all.

The No. 13-ranked prospect on our EliteProspects April rankings is a powerful skater, a dominant stickhandler, a lethal and versatile shooter, and he can feather passes in-motion with the best of them. On top of that, he can hustle, he can hit, and he sees plays that most can’t.

He knows it, too — every puck touch turns into another half-dozen. The 6-foot-1, 192-pound winger commands the puck on every shift, clearly intent on being the difference-maker each time his skates hit the ice.

We’ll take a look at the tools in isolation, how they combine, what gets in the way, and what an NHL-scalable version of Carbonneau could look like in a few years.

Dominant skating and handling foundation

Carbonneau’s game is built around his ability to skate with the puck and make plays at high speeds. Two skating components really stand out in this regard: edgework, and upper/lower-body separation. The former especially shows up in the frequent end-to-end rushing plays Carbonneau attempts — quick and smooth crossovers to build up speed, and then once he reaches his optimal velocity, he can decelerate, accelerate, cut hard across defenders, or stutter-step before driving wide. 

The latter serves him in all situations, however — his upper and lower body function fully independently, allowing him to make quick adjustments on-the-fly. He never needs to stop moving his feet to move to his backhand, exploit a defender’s triangle — the space between his skates and his stick — or pull off one of the dozens of high-difficulty tricks he has up his sleeve. Mid-crossover, he can move the puck to his backhand, take his bottom hand off his stick, protect the puck, curl it around one layer, pull it into his feet and kick it around another while spinning… There are very few skating and handling plays that Carbonneau can’t access.

The handling in isolation is phenomenal as well — possibly the best in the class. Hip pocket carrying and blade-heel cradling allow Carbonneau to keep close control at high speeds. Possessing a particularly large area of control, Carbonneau can pull pucks wide, drag them back into his feet, and bring them out of defenders’ range on the backhand as well. Factor in the tendency to freeze defenders’ feet and attack their heels, the frequent hip-pocket setups, the triangle exploitation, and the ability to leverage his edges to make first-touch dekes and get out of trickier situations, and Carbonneau has every tool in his bag to become a high-end NHL dangler.

The last sequence in the above clip is particularly astounding: facing a high-end skater in Alex Huang, Carbonneau solves the entry with a hard backhand move followed by strong protection mechanics, but gets double-teamed along the wall. He shows his solid follow-up motor by chasing down the breakout, lifting the carrier’s stick, then quickly escaping behind his back. A reactive backhand touch around Huang, then a ridiculous two-touch spin (in the midst of which he corralled the puck in his skates), and he creates a wrap-around attempt out of what should’ve been a clean zone exit for Chicoutimi. Carbonneau’s high functional pace also factors wonderfully into his skillset — his brain and feet move quickly and in near-perfect synchronization, allowing him to sustain high speeds without losing control of the puck.

At his best, Carbonneau is unstoppable off the carry, and the combination of mobility, dexterity and creativity plays a major part in that.

Versatile goal-scoring skill

Carbonneau scored 46 goals in 62 regular-season games for Blainville-Boisbriand, and it’s easy to see why.

Name any shot, and Carbonneau has it in his toolbag. A mechanically-refined one-timer serves him well from the half-wall — his office on the power play. Carbonneau’s top hand being especially flexible allows him to quickly engage the rotating motion on his one-timer, and his developed upper-body strength makes it all the more lethal. 

Carbonneau’s wrist shot is just as powerful and accurate, and seems to be his weapon of choice given his puck-carrying foundation. His tendency to cradle the puck in his hip pocket forces defenders to respect the threat of a deke or a pass, and his curl-and-drag release makes him even more deceptive. He shortens his follow-through to beat screens, picks corners with ease, and folds his wrists incredibly quickly. An advanced ability to delay or accelerate his release to solve more complex shooting scenarios offers great support to his mechanics, too.

Carbonneau’s close-range scoring is just as effective as his mid-range release, as the winger frequently makes a quick move in-tight before stuffing a shot through a goalie’s coverage or lifting it under the bar in-motion. He shows great comfort on his backhand as well, allowing him to further threaten goaltenders from unorthodox positions. 

Mechanical refinement and versatility matter in order to score at the next level, but so does volume — with an average of 10 shot attempts and 5.3 shots on goal per game according to InStat, Carbonneau brings volume in spades as well. 

Playmaking potential

Carbonneau’s playmaking vision allows for his skating and handling to serve a larger play-creation purpose. In flashes, it borders on elite — he  manipulates defenders with his hands and feet to pry open cross-ice lanes, looks off his target to force defenders to respect the major threat his shot poses, and consistently spots lanes that others don’t. Off the rush, on the forecheck, on his backhand, off the catch… Very few passing skills sit outside of Carbonneau’s scope of available plays.

It isn’t all skill and vision, either — there are flashes of translatable habits to support his play-creation. He can work give-and-gos, delay to find trailers in the high slot, and use delayed or accelerated pass releases to maximize his odds of hitting his target. Leading into his passes, he’ll initiate contact to create separation with his immediate pursuer, allowing him the room to evaluate his options. 

The only real factor holding Carbonneau back from being a true playmaker — like Caleb Desnoyers, for example — is play-selection. The massive scope of available plays in Carbonneau’s game is both a blessing and a curse — with so many different options he can access, choosing the right one becomes a challenge. He can force low-percentage passes, deke himself into unfavourable positions, or most notably, omit simple possession-extending plays in favour of creating a flashier high-danger chance. Passing becomes an end play — not a way to create. Primary assists pile up, but so do the turnovers.

The NHL is unforgiving towards high-risk creators — Carbonneau will need to rework his game and mindset around extending possession in order to be effective, but if he does, he could become a true triple-threat creator.

Power forward potential

It’s scattered, but the physicality is there. Carbonneau just needs to piece it together more cohesively.

In flashes, it shows up via hits, mostly when he gets frustrated. If a teammate gets flattened or if the score isn’t in his team’s favour, Carbonneau ramps things up — and he can really crush guys. Mostly, he finishes his checks like any winger would, but when he turns up the dial, he can dish out some crowd-pleasers.

Carbonneau’s board game is also highly advanced when he opts into the cycle. Good battle mechanics and edgework allow him to drop his centre of gravity to absorb hits when he’s first on-puck, and he can pin defenders effectively when he doesn’t have the better position. His involvement, motor and footwork cause him to draw a tonne of penalties, too — whether when bursting off the wall, or overwhelming wide with crossovers.

Still, the crux of his power forward potential comes through his rush patterns and potential to develop into an overwhelming net-driver. When he opts for it, his powerful legs and good upper-body protection mechanics combine to get him some grade-A chances at this level, and leaning away from his reliance on pure dangling skill will only improve that facet. Right now, he bypasses net-drive options with his hands, but at the next level, those powerful bursts inside contact will be much more effective and reliable. 

Finally, there’s upside in Carbonneau’s forechecking abilities. An active stick, a strong motor and great edgework go a long way — he can keep up with opponents’ cutbacks and changes of direction on breakout attempts, and with his range, disrupt the puck and pounce on it. Developing his sense of when to pounce will be key moving forward. 

What’s next

There is no denying the tools — across the board, Carbonneau’s skating, shooting, passing, handling, and physicality grade at 6 (above NHL average) or higher on our tools grading scale, with the shooting and handling being closer to 8. His hockey sense is polarizing among our team, mainly because of the gap between his high-end vision and his often frustrating play-selection. Here’s an excerpt from a game report I wrote on Carbonneau back in December, which still rings true. 

‘‘Inevitably, when Carbonneau tries to do everything, mistakes happen. He ran straight into pressure he couldn’t escape, threw away pucks by trying low-percentage dekes, passes and shots, and generally failed to make possession-extending plays. The tools are phenomenal — he has an increasingly deep bag of tricks, has started experimenting with backhand and area passes, and the release remains elite — but Carbonneau’s decision-making has to improve.’’

Right now, he is wired for chance-creation above all — and he’s really good at it. Applying his physical skills more consistently will help him streamline his decision-making process, and improving his decision-making will also test his physicality more. Both areas of improvement go hand-in-hand, and should be tackled as one singular development objective rather than two. 

With enough consistency in his ability to apply his physical tools, a shift in mindset towards effectiveness, and more trust in his teammates to carry the workload, there won’t be much in the way of Carbonneau becoming a top-six power forward with high-end puck skills.

It’ll take a while and a hands-on approach from whoever drafts him, but it will be more than worth it — Carbonneau has all the building blocks of a special NHLer.