Film Room: Why Cameron Schmidt could become a draft steal and highly-successful NHL outlier

One glance at Cameron Schmidt’s Elite Prospects page is all one needs to understand that the 5-foot-7 winger’s odds of becoming an NHLer are slimmer than most. This season, 920 players stepped onto NHL ice for a shift. Thirteen of them were 5-foot-8 or shorter — and only about half of those could be considered regulars.

Cam Schmidt could very well be the smallest player in the league when he joins his NHL team, especially considering the league’s average height has been creeping upward.

But note the usage of when here.

At Elite Prospects, we’re believers.

Yes, there’s risk in his projection, but his upside matters more. What we’ve seen from Schmidt this season makes us think that not only could he play games in the league, but he could become a top-six forward in the right environment.

We may need to reframe his NHL odds as well. While Schmidt may be 5-foot-7 — and a quarter — many of his abilities grade as significantly above NHL average. That matters just as much, if not more, when projecting a prospect.

What stands out first and foremost when watching Schmidt is his skating.

A rocket on skates, the forward can traverse the neutral zone in the snap of a finger, beating defenders wide or inside and firing on net. This was his primary scoring formula at the minor level, where his speed advantage shone even more — and he replicated that play time and time again this season.

Schmidt is not just WHL fast — he’s NHL fast. Give him a runway and he would already blow past most players in the league.

Most of his transition ability comes from his ability to outpace the opposition, but in his best games, he layered some tricks on top of his speed, transforming into a puck-carrying machine for the Vancouver Giants.

Accelerating in crossovers and on his first touch of the puck, he flew past the first line of defence, then cut laterally, forcing the next defender to follow his movement — before turning back. His east-west shifts kept the opposition on their heels, a beat late in their attempts to shut him down. 

Even when opponents tried to close on him more aggressively, they often couldn’t get a stick on the puck.

With quick hands, high-level seam-reading ability, and precise stickhandling touch, Schmidt would thread the puck under sticks and around pokechecks, slicing right through the defence before kicking the puck wide to a teammate. When the opposition slowed their approach, waiting for him higher in the neutral zone, the winger would pass around them, completing give-and-go sequences that carried him into the slot.

If given the space, he’d rush straight to the net, taking on the goalie or firing a top-corner shot without breaking stride — often catching the netminder off guard.

It’s not just that he’s quicker than the opposition; he processes the game faster, too. He spots open space and vulnerable defenders, as well as passing and shooting lanes, the moment they appear. He knows how to freeze defenders and make them turn the wrong way, exposing their heels.

In the clips below, you’ll find more examples of him baiting and evading pokechecks, feinting defenders and cutting away from them, and turning those feints into hard releases on net — sometimes using defenders as screens to increase the shot’s effectiveness.
 

That deception and skill fuel Schmidt’s scoring game in the WHL, elevating him to the 40-goal plateau, and these qualities could continue to form the foundation of his game in the NHL. They could make the winger a quick-strike attacker at five-on-five in the NHL and a primary puck carrier on the powerplay.

Coming into the season, besides his size, the main concern about Schmidt’s game was his playmaking ability. 

Like other talented shooters, the forward fires from odd angles, thinking he can squeak a puck in. He managed to score that way a few times in his WHL career, but considering his high level of skill, he could become even more effective as a scorer if he instead looked to use teammates even more, building better quality scoring chances.
 

We saw that transformation this season. Not completely. Faced with two valid options, he remains more inclined to fire than to relay a pass across to a teammate, but he has honed his decision-making, learned to make the higher percentage play in more offensive situations, and increased his production as a result. 

The clips below feature a collection of some of his best feeds. You can see him land stretch passes, work give-and-goes to beat defenders, fake his release and slide the puck over to a teammate, hold possession to let a lane develop, hook the puck directly off the wall to teammates in the slot, and fire low at the cage for deflections. 

It’s not a matter of ability with Schmidt — he can create lanes and execute difficult passes — but more so of mindset. If he continues to develop his playmaking and leans into it, he could become a harder-to-shutdown, dual-threat attacker. 
 

Mitch Brown’s tracking data reflect his rush offence prowesses, talent for getting his shot off in dangerous areas, and evolution as a playmaker. He ranks above the 90th percentile in overall transition metrics, like his ability to pierce inside the opposing formation, beat defenders with his speed, pass and carry the puck outside the defensive zone, and the usage of creative and NHL- translatable skating patterns. 

In the offensive zone, it’s his shooting metrics that stand out. The majority of his goals, both at five-on-five and with a man advantage, came from firing off the pass. Understanding where the puck will likely come from and how to get open for teammates, Schmidt adapts his body angle and footwork beforehand to catch and release passes. 

It’s a highly projectable skill and that’s partly how top NHL scorers amass high totals. They find open ice and fire instantly. 

Like other undersized forwards before him, Schmidt will have to prove himself more than most to make the NHL.

Not only will he need to convince coaches that he can help them win, but there will also be fewer available roles for a player like him in a lineup. His shorter wingspan and smaller stature don’t lend themselves to a bottom-six, checking role.

To succeed, Schmidt will have to outperform higher-end NHLers for a top-six and power play spot.

To do that, he’ll need to continue refining every facet of his offensive game. The more skill he can add, the more diverse his impact can become — and the greater the likelihood he earns a role.

What may give him an unexpected boost is his uncommon physicality for a player of his size.

Calling him a power forward would be a stretch, but Schmidt rarely passes on an opportunity to engage physically. He lands hits on the forecheck and, more importantly, slips between opponents and loose pucks to help keep plays alive in the offensive zone.

His retrieval success rate remains relatively low. At this stage, however, what matters most is his willingness to make those plays — to put his body on the line and contribute to his team’s possession game. At the very least, he delays the opposition’s recovery and buys time for teammates to support the puck.

In those one-on-one battles, Schmidt displays a surprising amount of technical ability: resisting shoves, slowing down opponents, bouncing off boards and defenders, and controlling the puck while using his skating to escape.

This was one of his best sequences of the season. 

The puck gets knocked off his stick at the blue line and slides down to the backdoor. Schmidt pursues, pulls level with an opponent, and then slips in front of him. By leaning on the defender, neutralizing the opposing stick, and digging into the ice with his skates, he absorbs the defender’s momentum and complicates the recovery. The puck bounces off the boards. Schmidt recovers it and beats the opposition to the net, giving his team the lead.

The winger couldn’t control the full engagement — he technically lost the first battle — but his relentless effort led to a mistake, one he capitalized on with his skating and skill.

Schmidt’s release doesn’t quite match Cole Caufield’s. He may not have scored as much as Caufield or Alex DeBrincat in their draft years, and he may not have shown as complete a game as Logan Stankoven in his draft-plus-one season, but the Vancouver Giants winger shares many of the same traits that fuelled those players’ success.

His clever off-puck movements and tendency to land sharp-angle shots are reminiscent of Caufield, while his motor and constant footwork evoke Stankoven. He also brings a physical edge that’s more in line with DeBrincat.

Schmidt didn’t have the same scoring environment as those players. He wasn’t part of a star-studded team that gave him consistent exposure or elite-level linemates like Jack Hughes or Dylan Strome to load up his release. He also averaged 18 minutes a night — not 23, like Stankoven did in his draft-plus-one year.

Yet, he still scored 40 goals and posted nine points in five games in a tighter-checking playoff setting.

The odds remain stacked against him, but in many ways, Schmidt is a special prospect — with clear, too-good-for-junior-hockey attributes that translate to the NHL level.

Over the next couple of years, as he matures, logs more games, and earns an even bigger role, his scoring could skyrocket — cementing his upside as a legitimate top-six scorer.

He could become an outlier.