Film Room: Ivar Stenberg's elite hockey sense could make him a top-line NHL forward

To many, Ivar Stenberg's historically strong draft year and ascension into the first overall conversation might have come as a surprise. To those who've followed him closely for years… not so much.

After all, Stenberg had one of the best draft-minus-one campaigns we've ever seen in Sweden. He torched the U20 level by averaging almost two points per game, already showed a ton of promise against men during his playoff run with Frölunda's SHL squad, and was by far the best and most productive part of Sweden's U18 national team.

As such, Stenberg becoming a legitimate top-end SHLer in his draft year was a natural progression. He ultimately finished with 33 points in 43 games, giving him the highest point total amongst all draft-eligible talent in the league in over 25 years, and the second-best full-season scoring pace after Daniel Sedin. In addition, he played an instrumental role in Sweden winning its first World Juniors gold since 2012, adding six points in three games during the medal round.

In two months, he could follow in the footsteps of Mats Sundin and Rasmus Dahlin and become the third Swedish player drafted first overall.

Offensive versatility

You don't enter the first overall conversation as a forward without high-end offensive upside, and while Stenberg doesn't have the most special skill set in the draft in this regard, he still brings individual skill, manipulative playmaking, and well-rounded creation ability in spades.

A true chess master, Stenberg dictates the play with authority when the puck lands on his stick. He manipulates defensive schemes to his desire through consistent deception and clever angles of attack. His early SHL ascension was largely possible due to his ability to process the play, always putting himself in favourable positions and maximizing his touches.

As a playmaker, Stenberg recognizes lanes that very few in the class do. He rapidly identifies and exploits slot pass opportunities from below the goal line and creates shooting opportunities for his teammates off the cycle by finding them from the boards with precise passes. A fearless inside attacker, he quite often manufactures the best possible play himself, having the confidence and vision to gravitate multiple defenders to him to create the required lane and space for his teammates.

It's more of a rule than an exception that highly skilled and creative prospects tend not to be the most efficient ones at this stage of their career, and that also applies to Stenberg. There were some turnover-heavy nights, with some of the more inefficient performances happening during the World Juniors group stage. These games saw him throwing hope passes to the slot, cutting into pressure along the walls, and even sometimes missing high-value playmaking options.

Overall, though, Stenberg projects as a high-end thinker and a playmaker on NHL standards. With how well he anticipates, plays off, and connects with his teammates, it's easy to imagine him as someone who can play together and thrive with pretty much every type of top-six NHLer.

Further bolstering his efficacy as a potential first-unit power play guy, Stenberg's shot is also a projectable weapon, even if he often uses it sparsely. His bread and butter is a weak-side catch-and-release wrister, already showing he could beat SHL goalies clean with his shot.

Even more so, Stenberg is going to score a lot of goals from closer ranges. Combining his high-end hockey sense with inside-driven mindset and willingness to go to contested areas, he already proved to be proficient at finding backdoor and rebound opportunities, in addition to scoring some really nice goals by quickly roofing pucks from difficult angles. 

Play-driving and transition prowess

There are many talented offensive creators in this year's class who lack the skills, habits, and the motor to reliably drive play at further levels.

Stenberg isn't one of these players. Whether at the SHL level or during international play, he was often the one driving the bus on his line, being heavily involved in building up plays from the ground up.

In transition, Stenberg's puck-carrying ability is a big-time asset. He's not a high-end speedster per se, but more importantly, he's a difficult to read for defenders, being able to surprise with deceptive quickness by varying his pace.

As a puckhandler, he's unquestionably near the top of the class, being able to weave through traffic with ease while keeping his head up to survey for the best option. He adjusts the puck position rapidly to fit the situation, and his ability to sneak pucks through defenders' triangles has been a notable feature for years now.

Stenberg's transition output is also boosted by his confidence to hold onto the puck and delay before making the next move when it's required for the optimal result. There have been countless sequences in the SHL where almost everyone else would've opted for a simple glass-and-out play, but Stenberg managed to manoeuvre around pressure and had the patience and skill to manufacture a more valuable outcome. 

Once he graduates to the NHL, Stenberg will likely have to streamline his transition play in some ways, but there's very little doubt in my mind about him being able to adapt and succeed on the smaller surface.

Underrated two-way game

Stenberg's offensive instincts, skill level, and transition play-driving deservedly get most of the attention when we're examining him as a player. What sometimes goes unnoticed is how effective a two-way contributor he can be.

Stenberg's motor is underrated. He's not necessarily as overtly hard-working as some others, missing some of the visible bursts of energy, but it's more due to how his baseline is so good.

His ability to read the play shines in this regard, too, as he predicts the attacker's intentions and preferred routes. At the same time, though, he's willing to power down and take the extra strides required or play the body when he's in position to do so. He's willing to support the play down low in the defensive end, too.

When you contrast Stenberg's defensive play to that of the other first overall front-runner, Gavin McKenna, the gap between the two might be the biggest in this area compared to any other, and it is in favour of the Swedish winger.

If Stenberg were to go first overall, how highly would he rank compared to other top picks from the past decade? Likely somewhere in the bottom half.

He doesn't have blazing, elite-level speed, McKenna's game-breaking offensive flashes, or the kind of power forward frame that someone like Leo Carlsson possessed. Being a winger can also be counted against him in this regard. He doesn't have the most unique profile, nor should he be expected to be able to turn the fate of a franchise on his own.

Even still, Stenberg has a good shot at becoming the best player out of this year's class. For the team that gets to pick him, he provides both upside and certainty, also on a fast timeline. He's arguably the most NHL-ready prospect in the class, and could easily step into an NHL lineup tomorrow and find ways to provide value.

With Stenberg, you're looking at a high probability top-six, likely a top-line forward who makes everyone around him better, complements all different player types, and provides consistent offence through his playmaking and hockey sense, while also driving transition results, carrying his own weight defensively.