Film Room: Keaton Verhoeff's raw tools and upside make him a worthwhile pick

This time last year, Keaton Verhoeff was riding a high into his NHL draft year. He had just wrapped up the U18s in Texas, winning a gold medal while locking down a top pair role as an underager. Just a week and change prior, he was in the midst of a historic production run with the WHL's Victoria Royals, firmly among the top-3 picks for the 2026 draft.

Feeling he was outgrowing the WHL at 16-years-old, Verhoeff would eventually announce his commitment to the University of North Dakota of the NCAA, alongside Royals teammate Cole Reschny. It was a commendable decision – Verhoeff decided to push himself into a far stronger league and system, opposed to resting on his laurels.

What followed was a year with both ups and downs. Verhoeff had bright moments early, pitching a strong case at the autumn Hlinka Gretzky Cup with Team Canada before returning to Grand Forks, where he'd score on opening night. As the season wore on, and UND played through a conference and national schedule, his role began to shift a bit.

Verhoeff struggled to pair consecutive strong performances late in the season, eventually falling just one game short of a National Championship appearance. He headed to Slovakia, where he'd captain Team Canada, an opportunity against opponents his own age. It was a strong showing, asserting himself well in his best moments, but the traits that pushed him down our board persisted.

Amid all the noise and chatter around this player, there remains much to like about the profile. He's a 6-foot-4, right-shot defenceman who produced at the same clip as Cale Makar did in his draft-plus-one season. On top of that, he only recently turned 18, just a week before the draft. There are strong reasons to remain hopeful in his game.

Power game

Even the scouts holding the most bearish view of Verhoeff, both within our team and across the NHL, seem to see his shooting ability as a differentiating attribute. He potted 21 goals in his 16-year-old season in Victoria, a ridiculous feat for a rookie defenceman. While Verhoeff only scored 6 in 36 games this year, it's evident he'll have the ability to create offence from the point in professional hockey.

“While other big kids with long limbs struggle with some mechanics, Verhoeff has a compact release; he can shoot pucks easily off just a touch or two,” wrote Dir. of USA Scouting Whittaker Heart in a report. “When players' shooting mechanics don't require a massive windup mechanically, they can blend crafty, varied releases into their game, something Verhoeff does well. Little blade opens off a handle, tossing quiet pucks on net with his hips open, and deceptive touches through sticks in transition.”

“He's not just a crafty shooter – Verhoeff has a legitimate hammer,” continued Heart. “On the power play, he played the flank for much of the season at North Dakota, wiring pucks in his wheelhouse. Occasionally, he fell off balance and looked a bit uncomfortable, but Verhoeff almost always connected with heavy power.”

If Verhoeff can carve out a role in the NHL, it’s easy to see him earning an opportunity somewhere on a power-play unit. If he’s not the quarterback, he can still add value from the flanks, where he’ll likely become a scoring threat that penalty kills must respect.

Verhoeff also showed his power on the walls of the defensive zone and in front of the net. Even as one of the younger players in college hockey, in the toughest conference in the country, he had little to no issue battling opponents in his own end. He paired heavy, timely stick lifts with physical engagements, throwing his backside onto the right side of the puck.

“Verhoeff has pinning ability, neutralising cycle continuation in tight quarters by wrapping up,” described Heart. “The technique developed, gaining a smooth understanding of how to activate his free hand to push and prod, while the stick is active at the puck.”

In the NHL, he’ll likely have the “man strength” to move forwards out of position at the net front. When hockey gets hard, space starts to tighten, and you have to earn every inch. Verhoeff could be a really nice chip to put at the net front to clear sightlines. The best moments for him defensively seem to consistently come against the cycle.

Development opportunities

The concerns in Verhoeff’s skating have been well documented this year. His posture is fairly locked, and he struggles to separate his upper half from his lower in movement patterns. This raises his centre of gravity, and the result can be an awkward series of stumbles, falls, and failed mechanics.

His agility limits his play killing as well. It takes him an extra second to pick a manoeuvre, execute it, and adapt to the changing environment on the ice. Quick, opportunistic forwards in the pro game with higher-end manipulation skills can feast on players with similar hitches in their pivots and turns.

Still, there’s a path for Verhoeff to make it work, in some capacity.

“It’s clear that Verhoeff is an athletic kid. He’s explosive and, when the pattern necessary is obvious, he can blow through holes,”  wrote Heart. “Defensively, it’ll become necessary that he kills plays more aggressively — the more gap he creates may create more buffer room to get manipulated. This will come with risks and failures, but that’s where growth will have to come.”  

Verhoeff’s limited mobility in certain situations further exposed his main weakness in the NCAA: his decision-making.

When the pace of play for both North Dakota and Team Canada sped up, the necessary pace of decision-making grew dramatically faster, and he failed to adjust. Pucks bobbled on him, he took extra seconds to scan, and forechecks swallowed him up.

The blend of gaps in his game may begin to compound, too.

If the skating failures continue, he’ll frequently have to hurry his decisions, making even more of them under pressure at the NHL level and putting a lot of stress on his processor.

Many of Verhoeff’s best moments came with aggression, proactively cutting down space. Shrinking the ice can play favourably for players of his mental mould. Yet, if the skating fails to develop, these pinches will become far too risky to perform, as he will lack the ability to recover if the puck goes south.

Players can occasionally compensate for smaller holes in their game, but two holes, ones as large as skating and decisions under pressure, get complicated quite quickly.

When decisions were more binary, Verhoeff shone. In the moments where he was able to set his feet, control his handle, and analyze the layers of play, he connected plays at a solid clip. The mechanical limitations from his skating factor in here as well. If he unlocks his upper half to open up more range in his scanning, a whole new series of plays will open much more quickly.

The projection

Concerns about Verhoeff's ability to skate, combined with the pace of his processing, scared away many of our scouts in the second half of the season. We ended up placing him 12th overall.

Still, there’s a lot to like in this player. It’s worth rehashing the quality of competition he brought upon himself this year. Verhoeff played in the highest-quality season of college hockey we’ve ever seen as essentially a high school senior. Expectations were high, and while he didn’t necessarily meet them, there’s so much time left in his career to continue finding his game.

There’s a strong chance Verhoeff will carve out a role in the NHL, bringing size, a heavy point shot, and physicality. It’ll be a longer development road than we previously thought, but it could pay off.