Gavin McKenna’s Next Move: CHL Phenom or NCAA Pioneer?

VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Gavin McKenna’s days in the CHL may be numbered. 

The 17-year-old superstar is on a mission to finish this season as the top scorer in the Western Hockey League. As a draft-minus-one skater. However, there’s a real chance McKenna could play his draft-eligible season, one of the most anticipated since Connor Bedard recorded 143 points in 57 games in his draft year, in the NCAA. 

It's a story of changing landscapes, potentially mismanaged Memorial Cup allocation, and a Hail Mary of a preseason showcase to appease the WHL's most important asset. 

For the Canadian Hockey League, which long has been the largest pool for NHL draft picks, McKenna's potential flight south of the border represents a frightening new reality. 

In November, the NCAA Division I Council approved a rule that will allow players with CHL experience to compete at American Universities beginning in 2025-26. Effective August 1, 2025, the longstanding ban on CHL players will be lifted. These players had historically been unable to play in the NCAA because they were deemed professionals, thanks to a modest monthly living expense stipend given out by CHL clubs.

Running nearly parallel to this decision was the June 2021 landmark shift in which the NCAA implemented an interim policy on name, image, and likeness, or NIL, allowing student-athletes to make money from their personal brand.

Suddenly, Canadian CHL players can move to the NCAA and make serious money. Some sources indicate that the value is in the $100,000 to $200,000 range per year, while others suggest it could be as much as $1 million annually for the right player. 

NIL money has become widespread in other sports, particularly college football, and hockey's NIL era is only starting to intensify. 

Additionally, those athletes are given the chance to compete in a more mature, and some may argue more pro-style game. Their competition would no longer feature freshly drafted 16-year-olds; instead, they would line up against players up to 23 years of age and on the verge of moving to the professional ranks.

We’ve already seen a good deal of CHLers commit to NCAA schools for next year, with the Ontario Hockey League alone celebrating 25 players on their new path. However, all of those players are on the precipice of aging out of junior hockey. The real threat is top-end U20 players departing. The death knell is losing a highly regarded draft-eligible player.

A player like McKenna.

Let's examine how we may have got here. 

The CHL has never been shy about promoting its stars. John Tavares. Sidney Crosby. Connor McDavid. Connor Bedard. They recognized the value that these players brought to their respective leagues and the brand as a whole, and they tried to find ways to maximize it.

One way of doing that is by awarding the Memorial Cup bid to an organization that houses these types of players. They had the chance to do that when Medicine Hat applied to host the 2026 event. The Tigers are a very strong team and one positioned to remain a contender next season.

Instead, they awarded that bid to the Kelowna Rockets, a club that has failed to make the playoffs this year and has traded away or is graduating nearly all of its top players. The Rockets need to overhaul their roster to avoid being embarrassed as the host.

While there is a collection of criteria that go into the bid selection, and there is past precedent for bad teams being kicked out of their own event – in 1990 and 1991 the OHL and QMJHL decided to pick a different representative than struggling host teams – the CHL doesn't seem worried about Kelowna's current trajectory. 

“We are excited to be heading to Kelowna for the 2026 Memorial Cup,” said Dan MacKenzie, President of the CHL in November. “With the largest number of CHL teams seeking to host a Memorial Cup in more than 15 years, the selection process for the 2026 tournament was incredibly competitive given the strong bids put forth by all five bidding clubs, including the Brandon Wheat Kings, Lethbridge Hurricanes, Medicine Hat Tigers, and Spokane Chiefs

"There were no gimmies here,” MacKenzie said. “It was very much a competitive process and they had to win it and they did just that.”

The decision was a disappointment to Medicine Hat fans and McKenna as well. 

“He was extremely disappointed, especially considering the team Medicine Hat has,” his advisor and former NHLer, Byron Ritchie, had to say. “The plan is to win their way there this year.”

“This year,” is the important modifier here. 

Next year, which Ritchie at this point doesn't want to completely define, could mean playing college hockey in the United States. 

“He’s already completed his high school requirements,” Ritchie said. “We will evaluate what’s best for him next year."

"Of course, all the big hockey schools have reached out,” Ritchie added. "But we have isolated Gav from any distractions up to this point.” 

In an attempt to appease McKenna, whether they'll say it or not, the CHL scheduling two preseason games before the 2025-26 season in McKenna's hometown of Whitehorse, Yukon is a hopeful carrot to dangle. 

“We certainly think hosting a major event like the WHL-Yukon showcase in McKenna’s hometown is a pretty attractive opportunity,” Taylor Rocca, Director of Public Relations & Brand Communications at Western Hockey League, told Elite Prospects. “Not only for a player like Gavin but players on both sides.”

While it may be an attractive opportunity, using a preseason game to try to keep McKenna has rubbed some the wrong way. 

“It’s not fair to put him into that spot,” one anonymous NHL source shared. “To book those games and then have him comment on them when everyone knows he’s weighing his options for next year... It isn’t fair.”

And McKenna owes it to himself to make the decision that best fits his development. 

With 37 goals and 121 points in 54 games, McKenna has been beyond supreme this season. Truthfully, he's been on another level since entering the league as a 15-year-old. With 225 points across 129 career WHL games through his pre-draft seasons, there’s little left to accomplish at that level.

In a new landscape for college sports, making the jump to the NCAA could be a logical fit for the centre. 

The WHL, expectedly, disagrees. 

“We look at the WHL as the best route to the NHL for players coming out of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest," Rocca told Elite Prospects.  We fully believe in our ability to provide the best opportunity for players. Whether that's Gavin or any other player playing for any of our 22 clubs." 

Rocca continued, “The landscape has changed and everyone is learning. We’re doing our best to monitor and see how that shift continues. For the time being, we’re focused on maintaining our existing standards and improving and making experiences even better."

But no matter what the CHL says, NCAA teams are circling McKenna and who could blame them? He would be a bona fide Hobey Baker candidate the second he stepped onto a college campus. 

When you consider that reality, and how much McKenna had hoped for a Memorial Cup bid, it seems unlikely a couple of preseason games will impact his decision one way or another.

And it shouldn't, especially when it's one of the biggest decisions we've seen in years in the prospect space – one that could have long-term impacts on both the NCAA and CHL.