What We Learned: Edmonton Oilers shifting roster construction
The goal is clear for the Edmonton Oilers after two straight losses in the Stanley Cup Final: Win the Stanley Cup.
But after going to Game 7 in 2024, they only made it to Game 6 a few months ago, and even the latter felt like it was the Florida Panthers doing them a mitzvah.
Generally speaking, it's good to be the second-best team in the playoffs two years in a row but it was hard to feel like the Oilers weren't going backwards at the end of the second run. That prompted serious questions about roster construction, how cap dollars were being allocated, the team's farm system, and of course the goaltending situation.
This is ostensibly why Stan Bowman gets paid the big bucks: His job was to tighten things up, identify why the team was more lacking this time than last, and put them in a position to improve once again.
As we draw nearer to the end of a long summer, the simple question is whether he has met his responsibility.
He shipped out Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson, two expensive depth players who didn't quite meet expectations, and what he got in return was basically "the cap space they used to take up." Which is fine. He also let Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Jeff Skinner, and John Klingberg walk in free agency. I don't think a team with serious Cup aspirations is going to miss any of them all that much.
So the question was always what he would do to replace those players and reshape the roster. The answer, based on who he brought in, is clear: depth guys who are Hard To Play Against.
The big names, if you want to call them that, are Andrew Mangiapane, Curtis Lazar, and Riley Stillman. (To be fair, also traded for reigning Hobey Baker winner Isaac Howard, who has never played pro hockey, and might not be a shoo in to make the Edmonton roster out of camp.) And, at last year's trade deadline, Bowman brought in Jake Walman and Trent Frederic. Frederic, recently extended eight years for some unknowable reason, fits the "hard to play against" mold. Walman does for a different reason: he's extremely good.
The hope, I think, is that Mangiapane turns back into the kind of goal scorer he was a few years ago, when he netted 53 in 138 games from 2020-22 with Calgary. (Please ignore that he shot north of 19 percent for those 138 games.) Maybe if they put him next to either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid, he can start generating the kind of chances that allow him to get there again, but also it seems possible and perhaps even likely that the 45 he netted in his past 238 games is more his actual talent level.
But if he doesn't reach the same high level he showed in the first two post-COVID seasons, the Oilers are probably going to be staring down the same old problem: They aren't good enough at scoring when McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice. Let's run through the same old stats: When either or both of those two were on the ice in all situations, Edmonton was plus-77 in the regular season and plus-16 in the playoffs. When they were both off, it was minus-55 and minus-7. The song remains the same. If the Oilers can't tighten up the "McDavid/Draisaitl off" numbers, they need "McDavid/Draisaitl on" to be even better than they already are. Which, as they've demonstrated time and again, isn't easy to accomplish. (Yes, a lot of that minus is on the PK, and obviously McDavid and Draisaitl are out there for just about every power-play goal they score, but the "off" numbers got worse from the '23-24 to '24-25 regular seasons, to the tune of 20 goals.)
The recent performances we've seen from the guys they've brought in this summer don't scream "growth market" to me, but maybe the departing guys all, collectively, have a worse baseline. I can buy that argument.
The good news, too, is that I'm foreseeing the Pacific Division as being a bit worse than it was last year. The Kings don't feel like they're going to be as competitive, nor do the Golden Knights. The Canucks, who knows, but I'm betting against the new coach having a huge positive impact. The Flames could go either way, but it depends on whether Dustin Wolf can build on his stellar rookie year. The Ducks and Sharks should be better, but not so much so that you'd put them down as legit playoff contenders right now.
Which means the Oilers have a pretty clear runway to at least making the playoffs again unless something goes disastrously wrong. And that's where the goaltending question comes in. If you wanna say that's the only thing that killed then in the playoffs — Stuart Skinner went a whopping .889 after being .901 in the previous Cup Final run — I would push back a little bit but I couldn't say he was any good, either. Bowman either chose not to address that problem, or perhaps had no better options available to him. But you gotta think the GM's finger will be hovering over the "trade for goalie" button basically all season. Might not matter if all the hard-to-play-against end up, as they so often do, being fairly easy to score against, but that's the bet Bowman is very obviously making here. Hard to say the departing guys were defensive stalwarts, but is there an upgrade here? Well…
We can agree this is a likely playoff team. But what happens if, for example, they somehow get bounced before the Conference Finals next spring? Lots of hockey to go, of course, but that feels like it would not be a good thing. The perception, I think, would be that they peaked and are now trending downward as even the two best forwards in the world are on the wrong side of their aging curves.
The other thing that's hanging over all of this is the McDavid extension. It's almost certainly coming around the time training camp opens and therefore not likely to loom over the season like the specter of death — which his departure would definitely be for this team's competitive window — but if the best player alive needs any convincing at all on the team's direction, I'm not sure Bowman made the most persuasive case.
You can also make the argument that two elite centers constantly being foiled by bad goaltending and weak depth is a big part of the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin story in the early and mid-2010s. That worked out pretty well. But it did require more major surgery — crucially, including a goalie change — than Bowman has chanced this summer. There's little question the Oilers are one of the better teams in the league, but does that mean they're second? Fourth? Eighth? Tenth? They did not get better this summer. They only made some longshot bets, which is the kind of thing teams that are flailing to maintain their relevance tend to do, rather than teams that are trying to build up respectability. Only one truly bad long-term bet (Frederic's deal), but the long term doesn't really matter for these guys.
By trying to play it safe, the GM might have damaged the hull before he even got out of the harbor. Now there's another 82-game voyage ahead, and who knows how long the weather will hold?
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: The first question here is fascinating because it's hard to imagine who looks at the Ducks roster and says "oh yeah, playoffs for sure."
Boston Bruins: Which way are we leaning, folks?
Buffalo Sabres: They make lists like this specifically to get you mad. Don't fall for it. Or do. It's your life.
Calgary Flames: Correct attitude. But will it be enough?
Carolina Hurricanes: Jordan Staal will hit 1,400 career games this season if he stays healthy. It's crazy that such a number isn't even top-40 all-time.
Chicago: Yeah, what does that extension look like for No. 98?
Colorado Avalanche: That's usually how it works, yes. In fact, I think they have a whole saying about it.
Columbus Blue Jackets: You can't read into this kind of thing too much.
Dallas Stars: Yeah I'd assume so. That was like three months ago.
Detroit Red Wings: "Another step" from 80 points? Okay…
Edmonton Oilers: "Trade that one guy. You know who I mean. The expensive one who's not very good. That's right."
Florida Panthers: Just some depth. No big deal.
Los Angeles Kings: I share the optimism here. But we gotta get this going ASAP.
Minnesota Wild: That's good news. It's not surprising news, but it is good.
Montreal Canadiens: I wouldn't go that far!
Nashville Predators: And that's saying something.
New Jersey Devils: They don't.
New York Islanders: I dunno, the Islanders being bad is pretty usual.
New York Rangers: I honestly don't know whether the Rangers should be all that interested. This season will answer a lot of questions.
Ottawa Senators: No kidding?
Philadelphia Flyers: "The last team he coached was the Canucks and look how that went."
Pittsburgh Penguins: This is picking up steam very quickly.
San Jose Sharks: I'm betting against it, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.
Seattle Kraken: We looked into it and it's actually good that this team always seems to overpay players.
St. Louis Blues: There's a difference between "can" and "should" here.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Yeah I don't think most NHL players have needed a ton of convincing to sign with the Lightning the last few years.
Toronto Maple Leafs: How long are we gonna talk about this?
Utah Mammoth: Already getting itchy, huh? That's not good.
Vancouver Canucks: … Yes. And it has been for more than a month.
Vegas Golden Knights: This headline makes it sound like he's seeking vengeance.
Washington Capitals: In what universe is he underrated?
Winnipeg Jets: Dumbest guy in the world: "OH YEAH? WHAT ABOUT THE PLAYOFFS???"
Gold Star Award
Next week is September.
Minus of the Weekend
No one's gonna give Jack Roslovic a contract before the month of September?
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "ljfranker" is really going wild:
Anaheim recieves: M. Joseph, J. Faulk, 2027 4th (ANA)
St. Louis recieves: 2027 2nd (STL)