Fantasy Hockey Feature: Can Dylan Guenther become a premier offensive player in the league?
Utah Hockey Club forward Dylan Guenther has 26 goals and 24 assists in 59 games this season. Since being called up to the NHL in January of 2024, his 1.53 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths puts him just outside the top 10 forwards in the league, making him 1 of 13 forwards to average at least 1.5 goals per 60 minutes. Given his prolific production, it is worth going through his path as a prospect, how he is finding success in the NHL, and how high his fantasy upside really is.
Guenther was drafted by the then-Arizona Coyotes ninth overall back in 2021. As a rookie in the WHL in 2019-20, Guenther finished third with 26 goals in 58 games and then posted 12 goals in just 12 games in the bubble 2020-21 campaign. That makes 38 goals in 70 games across two WHL seasons, which is part of the reason why the 2021 Elite Prospects Draft Guide had Guenther ranked 7th overall in 2021. The scouting report in that guide highlights Guenther’s ability to “threaten from range” as well as finding soft spots in the ice. Add in very little (or any) wind-up to his shot, and that combination of skills allowed Guenther to score from anywhere without much warning to the goalie.
The model at Hockey Prospecting was also very high on Guenther in his. He was one of three players in that draft to be given at least a 60% chance at becoming a star producer at the NHL level:
After spending another year in the WHL, Guenther began the 2022-23 campaign in the NHL. He played only 33 games before being returned to the WHL and scored merely two even-strength goals. However, both goals showcase the scoring skills mentioned earlier.
His first goal against the Vegas Golden Knights sees Guenther entering the zone as the fourth attacker. Initially, he veers towards the boards, anticipating a puck being thrown back to the blue line. But when he observes his teammate reaching the puck first, he quickly cuts back inside and fires it into the net:
The second goal again shows us his ability to read the play. He sees his teammate take a shot from the top of the circle, and rather than continuing his path the middle of the ice, he cuts back outside so that if there’s a rebound off the goalie’s pad, he’s the only player in a position to get to the puck. That is exactly what happens:
He also scored a power-play goal that shows how he scores from distance. After passing to his defenceman, Guenther sees that three of the Columbus Blue Jackets penalty killers have shifted to the other side of the ice. If he gets the puck back, he only has to beat one defender for a shot on goal. He taps his stick for the puck, drags it, and snaps it far-side:
As a 19-year-old on a bad Arizona team, Guenther had consistency issues, which is partly why he was sent back to the WHL for the second half of the season. But he was already showing the abilities that made him a coveted goal scorer.
After posting 28 points in 29 games to start the 2023-24 AHL season, Guenther was called up to the NHL in January. He was slotted with Logan Cooley, and it’s clear that Guenther had an immediate impact on Cooley’s offensive game. Here is how Cooley fared by on-ice shot attempts, shots, goals, and points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 before and after the Guenther call-up:
What is important to note is that Guenther wasn’t, and isn’t, a player who sits in the faceoff circle and waits for a one-timer. Here are three goals he scored in a span of four days in April of 2024:
- Cooley is battling for the puck behind the net, and rather than chase behind the net, Guenther cuts to the middle in case Cooley wins the battle, which he does:
- Here is a patented one-timer power-play marker over the goalie’s shoulder:
- This is off the rush where Guenther slides into the Leon Draisaitl Danger Zone for a sharp-angle shot on a mostly-open net:
It has been more of the same in 2024-25. As mentioned, this isn’t a player who looks for the distance one-timers to score his goals. In fact, of his 26 goals scored this season, InStat has him credited with 20 from the home-plate area, and eight from a net-front position:
In fact, NHL data has Guenther with three goals by tips/deflections this season, one more than teammate Clayton Keller in 11 fewer games played. Guenther can score from long range, but he doesn’t need to score from long range.
Furthering the point on Guenther’s versatility, tracking from AllThreeZones has 365 forwards with at least 250 tracked minutes since the start of the 2023-24 season. Among them, here is the list of comparable forwards to Guenther by offence created both off the rush and off the cycle/forecheck:
Guenther isn’t strictly just a shooter, either. Of those same 365 forwards, there are two with a similar rate of zone entries, percentage of entries carried in, and whose carried entries result in a scoring chance at least 25% of the time:
A lot of Guenther’s production has come on the power play, but that is not a bad thing. Looking at other elite power-play goal scorers in their age-20 and age-21 seasons since the 2013 lockout, here are the two comparable wingers to what Guenther has done:
Given these extensive and impressive accomplishments, that feels like a fair range for his long-term upside. It seems likely he is at least Alex DeBrincat – a guy who threatens or pushes past 30 goals and 30 assists every year – but if his upward trajectory continues, Guenther can turn into one of the premier offensive players in the league.
*Additional stats from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
