Elite Prospects NCAA Power Rankings for mid-February

Intrigue abounds across the NCAA landscape as we enter mid-February.

Championship Weekend is a little more than a month away (March 20-22) and the top 10 teams into the NCAA tournament are more or less determined. It seems increasingly likely that the cut line will be the 13th seed, because there will most likely be three conferences that need their autobids to get a team into the tournament. We're really talking about five teams — UMass Lowell, Michigan, Arizona State, Quinnipiac, and UMass — being alive for those three at-large spots.

Moreover, all but two of the six conference races are within a point or two if you account for games in hand; only the CCHA and NCHC look like they could turn into runaways at this point, and we're certainly not there yet.

So, the good people here at EP once again have the tough task of figuring out who's actually good, who's maybe a little overinflated, and who's likely to come on strong over these last few weeks:

Let's keep it simple to start: Two different No. 1 teams. Why did Sean pick Michigan State, and why did Ryan pick BC?

SS: It's interesting that we both watched our respective No. 1 teams in person this past week, you with BC in the Beanpot and me in Detroit, watching Michigan State blow out Michigan on Saturday night. I'm a big believer in the Big Ten this season, and for me, Michigan State's 6-1 win against Michigan was a statement win after they lost a close one on Friday night where they were the better team. The Spartans don't lose big games this season, they've won both trophies on the line already — the Great Lakes Invitational and the Duel in The D — and to me I just see that trophy case growing even larger this spring.   

RL: The margin between them is extremely thin, but here's BC's last 10 games: Games against teams currently ranked Nos. 6 (three times), 7 (twice), 11, 18, 20, 31, and 42 (once each). They went 9-1-0 with a plus-26 goal difference and plus-34 shot difference. It was a brutal stretch for them and the only game they lost was their most recent. Yeah, it was an important one — you don't want to lose the Beanpot. But while Michigan State has had a tougher schedule of late, they've also dropped a fair number more points; ties against Minnesota and Penn State, needing OT to beat Wisconsin, regulation losses to Ohio State and Michigan. BC is far, far, far more likely than not to finish with the No. 1 seed, having played the toughest schedule in the country (the Spartans' ranks third) in a conference that looks like it'll probably get six of its 11 teams in the tournament. 

At this point it seems likely that Hockey East will have at least six teams in the tournament. Outside of Maine and BC, both in the top four, which ones are you most interested in?

RL: I'll let Sean say "BU" in a second here, so I can say "UConn." I wrote about them a couple weeks ago and since then they've lost to UMass, beaten Lowell in OT, and dispatched Alaska Anchorage with ease. Mixed results that have nonetheless made them a virtual lock to make their first NCAA tournament in program history. They have two legitimate goalscoring threats at the top of the lineup, but it seems like the puck's flying into the net for them these days; they have 20 goals in their last five games, four of which were against nationally ranked teams. Add in strong goaltending and that classic hard-to-play-against style, and this team could put a scare into anyone when the conference tournament rolls around.

SS: Boston University feels like a copout after they won the Beanpot, but I think Mikhail Yegorov makes them one of the most fascinating teams for the remainder of the season. The goalie left a truly awful situation in the USHL with Omaha and is now dazzling right away for the Terriers. A confident goalie, and confidence in your goalie, can do wonders come tournament time. 

What's your read on Michigan?

SS: A very good team, one of the more talented teams in the country, honestly, but an inconsistent one that can't find an identity right now. They were shutout three straight games in December and then in January scored seven, twice. They can beat anyone in the country, but they could also lose to anyone in the country on the very same night. 

RL: Yeah that's about right. They can look great, or bizarrely ineffective, in any given game. Don't know how much I like their depth scoring or their goaltending, but if that all adds up to "fringe NCAA team that rides the bubble for the next month" it sounds about right to me. They're 5-6-1 since the holiday break but have also beaten the No. 1 or 2 team in the country twice. Your guess is as good as mine.

What do you think happens with Quinnipiac? Are they getting an at-large bid or will they end the regular season needing to win the ECAC tournament?

RL: They would need a couple teams in front of them to stumble, but Lowell and UMass might oblige. The River Hawks haven't looked good of late — a brutal 2-6-1 in their last nine — and the Minutemen have a rough remaining schedule against BC, UNH, Lowell, and Maine. I think we're probably talking about a 1 in 4 chance for the Bobcats, but any losses they suffer between now and the ECAC championship game will cripple their chances, too. They should never have put themselves in this position, but that's hockey.

SS: I think they'll have to win the ECAC tournament, right now they are 15 in the pairwise and if you account for the CCHA and Atlantic Hockey champion likely being outside the top-16, No. 13 in the PWR is the magic spot for at-large bid. I just don't see the time/space in the schedule for them to be up that high enough.  

Can Arizona State or Omaha make the NCHC regular-season title race interesting, or does Western Michigan have it sewn up?

SS: They both have a remaining series against Western Michigan, who has two games in hand, so they have a chance to make it interesting. But honestly, Western Michigan has this wrapped in my mind. 

RL: I think that's right; the games in hand are the key. Arizona State could totally sweep them, but they have an easier "out" the rest of the way, with ASU being the only top-20 opponent left on the schedule. Their runway is just a little too long for me to think either contender can make up the three-point gap to take sole possession of first.

Who's your top three for the Mike Richter award right now?

SS: Trey Augustine, Jacob Fowler, and Alex Tracy.

RL: As a Richter voter I probably shouldn't get too far into my thinking here but I'm gonna go with Augustine, Fowler, and Albin Boija, with strength of schedule being the differentiator between Boija and Tracy. Maine's is seventh, Minnesota State's is 37th.