Elite Prospects NCAA Power Rankings for the end of the regular season
We always like to keep it simple to start: We have the exact same top three (BC ahead of MSU and Minnesota) but differ on No. 4. Defend your picks!
RL: Maine is the second-best team in the best conference, winning 21 out of 30 games against the ninth-toughest schedule in the country. Western has three games against top-16 teams in the second half, and they went 1-2-0 with the win coming in overtime against Arizona State, which currently needs some help to become a tournament team. Maine played 10 games against top-16 teams — most of them on the road — in the second half and went 5-3-3. If you wanna say not much separates them, that's fine. But the Black Bears would likely have done quite well against WMU's schedule.
SS: It was tight, but in the end I went with Western Michigan over Maine because the Broncos have just two regulation losses since Christmas and one of those was against Michigan State. I also find Western Michigan plays a slightly more entertaining style than Maine, which when I'm picking in the margins I consider those things for power rankings.
How 'bout those Nittany Lions, with an 11-3-5 record in the second half? How does their surge affect your projections for what they can do in the NCAA tournament, provided they make it?
SS: They play a boring style, but they are pretty damn good at it. One Big 10 coach compared them to the Carolina Hurricanes of the NCAA, just without the elite skill to make it all click for something more. I think they'll win a round or two in the NCAA tournament, simply because they are perfectly built for overtime contests and low-scoring games.
RL: Yeah I think that's all more or less correct. Very good team in a strong conference but I don't really trust them to make the Frozen Four unless they get a favorable draw (which, given the state of the bracket this year, they might).
Right now it seems like there are 11 teams that are locks or virtual locks to make the NCAA tournament, with slots 12 and 13 still open. Is there anyone out there you see as a dark horse to disrupt the current NCAA tournament picture?
RL: Apart from the possibility that Michigan State stumbles in the Big Ten — where there are plenty of good teams — and whatever happens in the NCHC, not really. Things could get weird in Hockey East because their entire tournament is single-elimination, but with so many teams making the cut already, it would take a miracle for someone not in the top 13 to get through three of BC, BU, Providence, Maine, UMass, and UConn.
SS: Maybe Arizona State as a potential NCHC champion. I could see that happening and impacting the balance of power.
You've both backed teammates for the Richter and Hobey in the past, with Ryan saying Jacob Fowler and Ryan Leonard should win, and Sean favoring Trey Augustine and Isaac Howard. Probably no coincidence those are the teams we've seen the most this season, but is anything swaying you at this point?
SS: Recency and geography bias make sense here, and I've watched Michigan State in-person more than Boston College. For me it's really close to a coin flip on Howard vs. Leonard. When it comes to Fowler vs. Augustine, it comes down to this question for me, "with both being so great statistically, which one would you want in your team needing to win one game for a national championship?" And for me that answer is Augustine.
RL: The two Michigan State guys have fallen off a bit in recent weeks. Howard has 4-6—10 in his last 10 games, Augustine has a .915 save percentage over the same stretch. By comparison, Leonard has 9-8—17 and Fowler is .948 in their last 10 games. They both played top-20 teams seven times in those games, and while one pair rose to the occasion, the other didn't take that same step forward. At this point, Leonard and Howard are separated by 0.02 points per game, but the former has five extra goals. But Fowler's save percentage is 14 points higher.
Please pick the winners, based on everything we know right now, of each conference tournament. No further context needed.
RL: I didn't nail every one of my preseason picks for the conference regular seasons, but I'll stick with 'em just to be Very Brave: Holy Cross, Michigan State, Minnesota State, Cornell, BC, Denver.
SS: Holy Cross, Michigan State, Bowling Green (admittley a homer pick for my alma mater...), Quinnipiac, Boston University, Denver.