NCAA tournament chances: Where things stand as Championship Weekend begins

For pure drama, you cannot beat college hockey's championship weekend, when nearly two dozen teams can still dream of an NCAA tournament appearance and, perhaps, what lies just four wins beyond.

In fact, due to a scheduling issue, the weekend of fun kicks off a day early, as Hockey East's tournament runs Thursday-Friday instead of the usual Friday-Saturday. It's a roughly 50-hour window of sheer chaos during which the 23 teams still standing will be whittled down to just 16.

Here's where everyone sits as the weekend begins, with a breakdown of clinching scenarios, seeding, and more:

What we know

As of right now, there are 12 teams that are 100 percent guaranteed tournament spots, for whom no combination of wins and losses could knock them out of an at-large bid at the very least. Two more are virtual locks, with a better than 85 percent chance to make the tournament. Another two teams are in a winner-take-all championship clash in their conference final, scheduled for Saturday night.

Let's set those teams aside for a minute.

What we have to talk about first is that we're really talking about nine teams playing for just two slots. There's guaranteed to be a lot of heartbreak this weekend.

The last few weekends were kind of a bloodbath for teams that had already qualified for at-large bids. Boston College, Minnesota, Providence, and UMass were all bounced from their conference tournaments earlier than they would have liked. Penn State — which has an 85 percent chance to qualify, and is therefore considered a virtual lock — suffered the same fate.

What we don't know

Let's talk about the one known unknown in all this: The winner of Saturday's Atlantic Hockey title game between Bentley and Holy Cross is guaranteed a spot, and it would be the No. 16 seed. That's a straight either-or scenario. Loser leaves town.

One team that's still playing but is guaranteed an NCAA berth is Minnesota State, which is hosting St. Thomas in the CCHA final on Friday. However, the Tommies only elevated from Div. 3 in 2021, and when you move up a level (or two, in this case), NCAA rules state you cannot participate in national tournaments — in any sport — for four years. As such, Minnesota State is guaranteed the CCHA autobid, win or lose. Doesn't make a lot of sense, but that's how it is. 

Another team that's a virtual lock but has its fate a little bit in the balance is Quinnipiac, which currently sits 12th in the Pairwise. The Bobcats currently have a 92 percent chance to make the tournament, but if they lose on Friday night against Cornell, that number would drop closer to 75 percent and they would be rooting for zero upsets. They're almost certainly safe with a single win, but of course winning the ECAC title outright is the best guarantee for a tournament berth.

Penn State (85 percent chance of an at-large bid) and Michigan (27 percent), both recently bounced out of the Big Ten tournament and watching from home this weekend, are rooting for Quinnipiac, too. That's because if QU loses at any point this weekend, they're still much more likely than not to qualify, but another ECAC team would be guaranteed to take an additional tournament spot, and the cut line would move from No. 14 to No. 13. Any two upsets anywhere in the country would probably devour their qualification chances, but all their concerns start with whatever Quinnipiac does.

The other teams for whom tournament qualification is possible but not necessarily likely:

• Cornell, Dartmouth, and Clarkson have to win the ECAC tournament to qualify.
• Arizona State and North Dakota have to win the NCHC tournament.
• Northeastern has to win the Hockey East tournament.
• Bentley and Holy Cross have to win the Atlantic Hockey tournament.

Who's in?

These are the 12 teams that are currently guaranteed to play in the national tournament, with possible seedings, according to College Hockey News:

1) Boston College (locked into No. 1 seed)

2) Michigan State (locked into No. 2 seed)

3) Maine (could finish Nos. 3-6)

4) Minnesota (could finish Nos. 3-6)

5) Western Michigan (could finish Nos. 3-6)

6) Boston University (could finish Nos. 3-7)

7) UConn (could finish Nos. 3-8)

8) Providence (could finish Nos. 7-9)

9) Denver (could finish Nos. 7-11)

10) Ohio State (could finish Nos. 9-11)

11) UMass (could finish Nos. 11-12)

12) Minnesota State (could finish Nos. 14-17)

13-16) TBD

Who's on the bubble?

Here are the remaining percentages for teams that aren't locked into a tournament spot, but still alive. Italicized teams do not play this weekend:

• Quinnipiac (92 percent; 50 percent at-large, 42 percent automatic)
• Penn State (85 percent at-large, no automatic)
• Holy Cross (51 percent automatic, must win Atlantic Hockey championship)
• Bentley (49 percent automatic, must win Atlantic Hockey championship)
• Michigan (27 percent at-large, no automatic)
• Clarkson (22 percent automatic, must win ECAC championship)
• Dartmouth (20 percent automatic, must win ECAC championship)
• Arizona State (18 percent automatic, must win NCHC championship)
• Cornell (17 percent automatic, must win ECAC championship)
• North Dakota (12 percent automatic, must win NCHC championship)
• Northeastern (7 percent automatic, must win Hockey East championship)

With all that in mind, we're really only talking about one slot being legitimately up for grabs. Nos. 1-11 are 100 percent qualifiers, making it in all scenarios no matter what outcomes crop up this weekend, and the same is true of wherever Minnesota State ends up slotting in (the most likely slot being No. 14), as well as the No. 16 seed going to the Atlantic Hockey winner.

So really, we're only talking about Michigan being in tough shape here. They make it in slightly more than one-quarter of all scenarios, and in all of them, it means locked-in teams win early and often this weekend. Every upset, even in the semifinals, puts them at greater risk, and every time chalk walks, their odds improve.

There are eight teams with at-large bids sewn up that are still playing. Two of them are in the Big Ten final on Saturday, so the Wolverines don't care about that result (except to say they have to figure out which of Ohio State and Michigan State they hate more). Two more are in the early Hockey East game tonight, BU and UConn. They don't care about that, either. They also don't have to care about the guaranteed one-bid leagues: The CCHA and Atlantic Hockey. But every other game this weekend will affect their odds in some way. That's eight games' worth of scoreboard watching.

They, and to a lesser extent Penn State, are rooting for all the favorites. Even one surprise winner in a given tournament is a problem. Two is a disaster. Three puts Quinnipiac at risk, too.

Otherwise, the best advice any team still playing can follow is: Keep winning.

Weekend schedule (All times Eastern)

THURSDAY

Hockey East semifinals (Boston, Massachusetts)

UConn vs. Boston University, 4 p.m.

Northeastern vs. Maine, 7:30 p.m.

FRIDAY

Hockey East championship (Boston, Mass.)

TBD, 7:30 p.m.

CCHA championship (Mankato, Minnesota)

St. Thomas at Minnesota State, 8:07 p.m.

ECAC semifinals (Lake Placid, New York)

Cornell vs. Quinnipiac, 4 p.m.

Dartmouth vs. Clarkson, 7:30 p.m.

NCHC semifinals (St. Paul, Minnesota)

Arizona State vs. Denver, 5 p.m.

North Dakota vs. Western Michigan, 8:30 p.m.

SATURDAY

Atlantic Hockey championship (Worcester, Massachusetts)

AIC at RIT, 7:05 p.m.

Big Ten championship (East Lansing, Michigan)

Ohio State at Michigan State, 8 p.m.

ECAC championship (Lake Placid, New York)

TBD, 5 p.m.

NCHC championship (St. Paul, Minnesota)

TBD, 8:30 p.m.