What We Learned: After quiet deadline, the Winnipeg Jets are playing a dangerous game
Coming out of the trade deadline, the thing everyone was focused on was the pending nuclear war between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in the Central Division.
Hard not to get it. They both made splashy additions — the Avs in quantity, the Stars in perceived quality — but because of the way the season has gone to date, it nonetheless appears as though they will meet in the first round of the ever-silly divisional playoffs format.
But while they were going out and grabbing all the headlines, the team that entered the weekend leading the Central Division, the Western Conference, and indeed the entire NHL in points and points percentage was still in the driver's seat.
Which is what makes it feel a little weird that those Winnipeg Jets… did next to nothing at the deadline. They added old friend Brandon Tanev and Luke Schenn, who has now played for so many teams (nine) for so long (this is his 17th year in the league) that if you told me he started with the Atlanta Thrashers in 2006 I'd at least have to think about whether you were right. And if you really wanna strain the definition of what an NHL team can add, they also brought in Chris Driedger, who has two NHL appearances in the last three seasons, neither of which happened since January 2024.
And I guess my reaction to those additions is: "Seems pretty marginal, doesn't it?"
Maybe those NHL-level acquisitions both contribute positively — which is not a sure thing, I'd say, but let's go with that. What is the absolute peak of what Tanev and Schenn provide for this team? A little extra grit at the bottom of the lineup, and maybe they're therefore very slightly harder to score against? Okay, sure. That's fine because it's preferable to get better than not improve, though I'm not sure it will provide the value equivalent to the two-seconds-and-a-fourth they gave up to get the players.
The thing you have to say when having any discussion about the Jets is that there's a real perception problem around Connor Hellebuyck these days, that he can't get it done in big games. He may be going to the Hall of Fame one day, but in the here and now, there's still some question about his playoff capability. His postseason save percentage hasn't cleared .900 since 2020-21 (a fake playoff if ever there was one) and he has just two positive goals-saved-above-expected playoffs in his career. And as we've seen, if Hellebuyck isn't going, the Jets aren't winning games.
So it makes sense that perhaps Kevin Cheveldayoff didn't want to pay "dozen" prices for a half-dozen eggs — which, if you look at what Brandon Carlo commanded, was the going rate in this extreme seller's market — then that makes sense. It also makes sense that he wouldn't want to not make any trades at all, so two minor additions might seem prudent.
Not, like, to me, though. The Jets have had a whopper season so far, and if they don't win the Presidents' Trophy, they feel like they'll be close. But even with all the success, including Hellebuyck's all but assured third career Vezina, they end the weekend just six points clear of a Dallas team that people as recently as a few months ago talked about as being kinda disappointing, and the Stars have a game in hand. Point being, they're not so far ahead of their next-closest opponents that they should feel like they're gonna avoid finishing second in that division, especially with the way Colorado, too, has been gaining ground after their horrendous start.
If you wanna say finishing first in the conference gets them one of Calgary, Vancouver, Utah, or St. Louis — all of whom are right around that last wild-card spot no one seems to particularly want — then that's a matchup they can and should win. But if your playoff strategy is "avoid the better-on-paper teams in the first round by finishing first in the division," that's prudent and they certainly laid the groundwork to do it, but man, it feels like that's not viable given how hard the other teams at the top of the Central are charging now. Their strategies, too, are almost certainly "don't play that other team in the first round."
So let's say Dallas or even Colorado catches them, and Winnipeg ends up second or third in the Central. Would the Jets even be the favorite in their first-round matchup against the lesser of Dallas/Colorado. Last season's Avalanche, with what I would call a worse roster, obliterated the Jets in the playoffs. Winnipeg won one game out of five, and got outscored 28-15. Even if Hellebuyck dramatically improves, that's a series they lose and it's not particularly close.
So how, then, has Cheveldayoff done so little to improve the team for this season. Yup, they're winning a lot, but they had 110 points last year — mostly because of Hellebuyck's Vezina season, and I wonder if you're sensing a pattern here — and largely because they have four of their most-used forwards shooting 15-plus percent, they on pace to wring an extra six or eight points out of a largely unchanged roster.
The beauty of having an elite goalie is that it's really easy to see a scenario in which the quality of the Avalanche or Stars or Canucks or Flames, or Golden Knights or Oilers for that matter, doesn't matter because that goalie goes absolutely wild for 20 playoff games. This is one of the two or three best goalies of the era, and it is within his capability to be .930 for a few weeks or more. We've seen him do it on many occasions, just not usually in the playoffs.
And maybe none of this is fair, because Cheveldayoff said they wanted to acquire Brock Nelson and thought they were going to, but ultimately didn't. (Their divisional rival did, instead. Oops!) Maybe they had other irons in the fire. Everyone knows the Jets have roster holes, despite their position in the standings, Cheveldayoff included. And it's not like they didn't add at last year's deadline.
But who cares about all that? Because right now, it seems like "hope the goalie is Vezina-quality" is Cheveldayoff's only plan. If that doesn't work, well, have a good summer. It really doesn't even allow for Hellebuyck to be ordinary unless the power play keeps shooting a league-high 22 percent. Ah shoot, did I say league-high? I meant "era-high." As in, no team since 2007-08 has a power-play shooting percentage as high as the Jets' currently is.
With Colorado and Dallas being extremely busy before the deadline, and therefore getting noticeably better afterwards, it beggars belief that this was all Winnipeg had up its sleeve.
Make all the excuses you want. But if the GM had one player he was targeting, and that player had a no-trade clause (if that was indeed the impediment to that deal; Cheveldayoff wouldn't get into specifics for reasons that aren't hard to guess), that's always always always going to be a problem for this franchise in particular.
So to watch Colorado and Dallas go nuts, only add around the margins, then turn out your pockets because the one impact player you were targeting — and that was 33-year-old Brock Nelson, not Wayne Gretzky — didn't go there? Feels like that isn't a good enough excuse.
Or at least, it shouldn't be.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Which group? Surely not this group??
Boston Bruins: It would be funny if they ended up making the playoffs anyway.
Buffalo Sabres: Honestly what's the difference?
Calgary Flames: As it stands right now, this should be your rookie of the year.
Carolina Hurricanes: Good! They shouldn't!
Chicago: Oh yeah man they should go get Mitch Marner and Ivan Provorov and Brock Boeser. That'll fix all their problems!!!!
Colorado Avalanche: Yup, these guys are gonna be a problem the rest of the season.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Unfortunately these weren't the big adds I was hoping for, but I guess you take 'em anyway. That's fine.
Dallas Stars: Good thing they had another Finnish guy ready to go.
Detroit Red Wings: Can't help but notice these guys have lost five straight. They have the same record as the Canadiens. Woof.
Edmonton Oilers: I think their big deadline addition is gonna work out just fine.
Florida Panthers: Pretty cool.
Los Angeles Kings: I like that the day of the deadline is basically the one time of year where most GMs lay a ton of their cards on the table. Usually get some interesting insights.
Minnesota Wild: Awful optimistic here.
Montreal Canadiens: I think this is mostly right. Let the chips fall where they may.
Nashville Predators: I gotta tell ya: You will not believe the quote about their acquisition of Michael Bunting in this article. I'm flabbergasted.
New Jersey Devils: YEAHHHHHHHH!!!!!
New York Islanders: Finally, they are committing to a rebuild on the fly. It probably starts with re-signing every 34-year-old on the roster.
New York Rangers: Can't be dropping games like this, guys!
Ottawa Senators: Why is it the second any player leaves Buffalo, they become an All-Star? I wonder whose fault that is.
Philadelphia Flyers: What is the mindset of the person who goes to see a post-deadline Flyers game and gets so mad that they're playing poorly they boo the team? What did you think you were signing up for?
Pittsburgh Penguins: What do you mean? Didn't you hear him say they would be giving the old guys the chance to compete for another championship or two?
San Jose Sharks: That's kinda the point.
Seattle Kraken: Yeah there's a ticking clock on this for sure.
St. Louis Blues: That's nice then.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Some people might say "what prospect pool?" but not me.
Toronto Maple Leafs: This is so sick to me. The Leafs would have downgraded!
Utah [fill in the blank later]: Sure, why not?
Vancouver Canucks: He's for sure not coming back now. Maybe he always wasn't but this sealed it.
Vegas Golden Knights: Well then I guess that's a big W, isn't it?
Washington Capitals: You know what they say: Play with fire, you never get burned.
Winnipeg Jets: The last thing here is so funny to say. Yup, sure.
Gold Star Award
It's been pointed out plenty of places, but you gotta tip your cap to Jack Roslovic for getting a free Rolex out of letting some blow-in wear his number for a few weeks before he blew back out again. Salute.
Minus of the Weekend
All that stuff about how the Ducks wrre fixing Trevor ZegrasTrevor Zegras and they like him so they're keeping him? First game post-deadline: No points, no shots, minus-3. So sick of this. Just trade the kid.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
I have to say I'm really disappointed in this group. Not a single post-deadline proposal has been made yet. These guys aren't in it for the love of the game. Sad to see.