What We Learned: Conn Smythe race is wide open

Often, when we get this deep into the playoffs, it's pretty clear who will be the Conn Smythe winner for either team.

Maybe not so much this season.

Sure, if the Florida Panthers repeat as the Stanley Cup champions, Sam Bennett is probably the guy they name playoff MVP. He has more goals (13) than anyone else in these playoffs and almost all of them have been scored on the road. His involvement in their success is pretty obvious, but so too is the fact that he's not one of their tippy-top star players, and like it or not, those are the people who almost always win this away. Bennett also doesn't have a ton of assists to pad out his point total, and has been at the center of a few controversies, which could be the kind of thing voters hold against him.

There's also the very narrative-y rise of Brad Marchand, who has three goals in the first two games of the Cup Final, including an overtime game-winner in Edmonton. When Roberto Luongo is calling the league's longtime antagonist his favorite player ever and people are largely saying, "Do I like Brad Marchand now?" it's something that has to be considered for one of the more vibes-based awards NHL writers give out every year. Especially because, as we can see from history, elite performance in the Cup Final is more valuable than elite performance in the first couple rounds. Bennett, of course, also had three goals in the first two games of this series and given that he has been more central in the "he's going to cash in as a free agent this summer" talks, he's probably more buzz-y than Marchand, but he's also not 37 and is more likely to have another run at this.

The fact that it's only those two guys for the Panthers is interesting. Sergei Bobrovsky would probably have to pitch a shutout or two the rest of the way to work his way into the Connversation, and there really don't seem to be any other candidates on the roster. You might say Sasha Barkov but given his performance so far in the Cup Final — no points and a minus-4 for a Selke winner? — that would be pretty undeserved. And just looking at the stats, there's not really the level of dominant defenseman you'd want to see in this discussion; only four D have won the Conn in the cap era, and they either put up 20-plus points (Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, Duncan Keith) or were Scott Niedermayer. Florida simply doesn't have anyone at that level production- or legacy-wise.

For Edmonton, there's been some talk that we're in another "Connor McDavid no matter who wins" year. And while it would be extremely funny for the Panthers to win two Stanley Cups but zero Conn Smythes, I just don't see it happening. McDavid won it with 42 points last season, a perverse number only beaten by two of the greatest scorers ever back when goalies were basically playing blindfolded. That was McDavid's trophy, probably even if the Oilers had gotten swept instead of staging a dramatic series comeback. But McDavid has "just" 31 points so far in this playoff, well behind last year's pace, and I just don't think voters have the guts to do this to the Panthers again, even absent a standout better option.

That's also true because the list of back-to-back Conn winners is extremely short: Sidney Crosby, Mario Lemieux, and Bernie Parent. That's it. Ever.

And we don't have to get into the whole thing about "Phil Kessel deserved the first Crosby Conn" (even though he absolutely did). That year's win was a coronation because voters felt bad for giving it to Evgeni Malkin several years earlier and wanted to ensure Crosby's legacy as one of the true greats. Then Crosby went out and proved he didn't need the charity the following spring. Hard to begrudge it. With Lemieux's wins, it's hard to make the case against him, and with Parent's, those happened a decade before I was born so I have no opinion except to say that the save percentages he posted in both those series would win you the Conn in 2025, which is saying something.

Also, if things hold as they are right now (which obviously they might not), McDavid's six goals would be tied for the second-fewest by a Conn-winning forward ever. The fewest was three by Dave Keon a million years ago, back when the playoffs were only two rounds. The guys McDavid are currently tied with? Crosby's first Conn win (see, I told you he didn't deserve it) and Steve Yzerman's 1998 playoff run.

So I wouldn't say McDavid has quite earned the back-to-backness we're talking about here. Then again, he absolutely has it in his power to put up three points a game the entire rest of the series — and god, he was great in Game 2, huh? — and that would close the book on that.

So what about Leon Draisaitl? He's the only other real option on the Oilers. And while he's obviously one of the best players going today, he's not producing like McDavid and his underlying numbers, while elite, are very slightly worse as well. With all due release to Evan Bouchard, no blue liners and certainly no goalies on the Edmonton roster stand out as even being remotely defensible picks.

For the Oilers, it really is McDavid or nobody, and that's fine. But that is at this point entirely predicated on an Edmonton win, which last year's was not. Before last year, there had only been five Conn winners in losing efforts (just one of which was not a goalie), and obviously none of them did it in consecutive seasons. I just can't see voters talking themselves into McDavid winning the Conn twice without winning the Cup once, unless he gives them no choice in the remaining three to five games.

But the fact that no one really stands out as a likely winner right now probably tells you a lot about how we got here. The Panthers are very much doing this by committee; they only have one point-a-game player (Bennett's 13-6—19 in 19 games) but five forwards have at least 17 points, two more have 14, and another two have 13. Everything is going so right for so many guys, which is what we should expect for a team with this much talent. But all that talent makes it so that the coach has to keep everyone happy and Paul Maurice can't load up the top of his lineup and run any one forward 30-something minutes a night like Kris Knoblauch almost has to do by necessity. McDavid is averaging more ice time than everyone on the Panthers but Seth Jones.

A big contributing factor in the reality that there's no standout? The fact that both Conference Finals were kinda boring blowouts. No one got to do any heroics, really. No one was in a high-pressure situation. All the best players on both the Panthers and Oilers just collected between five and nine points and moved on.

That set up the top players on both teams well to really take the bull by the horns in this final and step into history. No one has been able to really do it yet, because while the games have been high scoring and lots of guys have multiple points, there hasn't been, like, the Signature Leon Draisaitl Game. Marchand came close in Game 2, but that only really got him the cursory discussion. He'll have to keep doing this for the rest of the series to have a real shot.

Which is really what it's all about at this time of year.

What We Learned

Edmonton Oilers: Lots to like about the first two games except to say the Oilers had Florida on the ropes a couple times and let the advantage slip away. The power play simply has not been good enough, and the total number of goals scored without McDavid, Bouchard, or Draisaitl on the ice is zero. In more than 73 minutes of play. Literally one goal from the depth guys — Florida got one from Dmitry Kulikov??? — is the difference between being up 2-0 and riding high against Florida tonight to a nervy 1-1 series. Now, you can say the depth scoring is coming because it takes a bad run of luck to go scoreless in 73 minutes. You can say the Oilers are gonna improve on their power-play output because they're too good to only score that little on 10 opportunities, including some 4-on-3 and 5-on-3 time. But they gotta start doing that ASAP, because Florida is too good to keep giving up this many goals, right? Right?

Florida Panthers: The other thing to say about Bennett's potential Conn case is that maybe people are getting a little sick of his whole act. Hard for me to see, personally, how the goaltender interference penalty he got in Game 2 was all that different from the totally allowable goal he scored in Game 1, though I'm sure there's some amount of explaining someone who thinks they understand it all could do to set my mind at ease. Look, 13 goals is a lot but a couple more dumbass penalties and the whole schtick might start to feel stale enough to voters — and on-ice officials — that they look around for someone else to coddle. When Bennett scored the opener in Game 1, I was like, "What a super power to have," because Bennett's style of play is the kind Hockey Men love and they allow him to get away with stuff most players could not. That's true for the refs and that's true for the Department of Player Safety. But if it's all getting to be a bit much, the timing is really unfortunate.

Gold Star Award

I love that everyone is coming around on Marchand now. Extremely fun player to watch, and has been for basically as long as I can remember of his career. Not that I'd want my team giving him $8 million or whatever, but hats off to him. He's so cool.

Minus of the Weekend

The way the league is doing these awards reveals always felt a bit weird. All these little tricks? It's all Punk'd-based? Strange. But the biggest prank of all is that they apparently did the Vezina/Hart Trophy reveal in a public place and now it's leaked online well ahead of schedule. Oops! They should have just dropped slime on these guys like Nickelodeon. Now that's funny!

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User "Girthybowlofchili" is sloppin' 'em up:

Sharks: Mason Marchment, Matt Dumba

Stars: 8.25m cap space

Grier improves his roster with Marchment and doesn’t have to spend assets for taking Dumba as a cap dump.