What We Learned: Four Nations performances could impact NHL awards
While watching the Four Nations Face-Off, which featured almost all of the league's best players, one nagging thought kept occurring to me.
I wonder how much the league's various awards voters — PHWA members, broadcasters, general managers, even players — will weigh performance in that small number of games into their decisions when they fill out their ballots in March and April.
The answer most people will tell you is, "not at all," because of course all votes should be based solely on performance in NHL games, but that's just not a realistic expectation. The things people saw in even just three or four games of best-on-best won't be accounted for in voting — that is, nobody will give Mikael Granlund any awards consideration because he scored those two goals against Canada. However, the first time in almost a decade will absolutely influence how they view the rest of the season. Here's an example: Everyone came out of the tournament talking, rightfully, about how Jaccob Slavin was probably the best defenseman in it, grinding basically every opponent into dust and allowing next to nothing when he and Brock Faber were on the ice. As such, everyone is going to talk about him in glowing terms and track him a lot more carefully than they normally would have whenever they're watching a Carolina Hurricanes game, and every time he finishes plus-3 or whatever, they're going to make a little mental note. Then at the end of the year, they'll think to themselves, "Boy, that Slavin, what a player! I gotta have him in my Norris top-5, for sure." Not that he won't be worthy of that consideration, but the before-and-after of how he was talked about before Four Nations and will be talked about in its aftermath is guaranteed to be different. Likewise, not that Adam Fox was going to get a ton of Norris love because of how bad the Rangers are, but his star has further dimmed with a subpar performance, to the point where people are actively disrespecting a guy who is and has been legitimately a top-10 defenseman in the league (at worst!) for years.
You also have to wonder how much Quinn Hughes being unable to participate is going to dampen not only his Norris candidacy, since Zach Werenski was already having a great season and and then led the entire tournament in points, but how he's looked at for the MVP. Speaking of which, wonders how many voters who were kind of goaltending-agnostic with their MVP votes moved Connor Hellebuyck up their ballots after his stellar performance in the round robin, even after losing the title game. And maybe Nathan MacKinnon, whose Hart candidacy felt like it was slipping pre-tournament because people caught on to how many of his points were on empty netters, will be buoyed once again by his Four Nations MVP performance against the best in the world.
This might sound alarmist. But think back to when voters tried to force a Drew Doughty Norris win after he dazzled in Sochi in 2014. People were legitimately asking whether he had become the best player on earth. When he "only" finished second in the spring despite also winning that year's Stanley Cup, voters immediately started talking about how much he deserved one ahead of the following season and Doughty cruised to his only career Norris in 2015. There is, to be fair, strong correlation between performance in best-on-best and performance in the regular season; Sidney Crosby, for instance, was MVP of the 2016 World Cup and then finished first in the league in goals and second in points, then finished second in Hart voting. And anyway it's not like Crosby needs to remind people to vote for him for various awards (unless you're talking about the years 2011-15, when the hockey media was desperate to crown someone else the best player in the world). A bunch of Four Nations participants were already up there in the various awards power rankings, so moving the needle a little bit with a good or subpar performance may just come out in the wash. But if you're holding Cale Makar Norris stock right now, for example, I'd think about selling after he looked a bit ordinary. Same goes for Leon Draisaitl, because not-playing the last couple weeks while MacKinnon and even McDavid had standout performances could hold him back from what was previously a nearly ironclad "best forward in the league" season, at the very least.
And all of that goes without mentioning how the 650 or so guys who didn't play in Four Nations will have their seasons affected by taking an extended All-Star break, or asking heavy-use star players like Hellebuyck or Werenski to play even more than they already do affects their usage in the final 25 or so games.
And it probably extends beyond the players, too. Jon Cooper has never won a Jack Adams, and if the Lightning win that division, he might find himself in the conversation in a way he wouldn't have been two or three weeks ago.
There's a lot of season to go, but this is the time of year when awards voters really start buckling down and giving candidates more attention. Considering the afterglow of the tournament and how rapt the sports world was, it's just gonna be hard for everyone who watches this league to put it out of our minds. How could you be surprised if it disrupted awards races a few months down the line?
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: We were all finally ready to cash in our "John Gibson Trade" bets and now this. Hopefully it's not long term.
Boston Bruins: Both Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy could be done for the year. What a coincidence, the Bruins are too.
Buffalo Sabres: Yeah it's called "raising the asking price."
Calgary Flames: Sure but remember a few weeks ago when it wasn't a chase at all?
Carolina Hurricanes: They're saying it was a nine-figure offer (meaning a minimum AAV of $12.5 million if it's an eight-year deal) for Mikko Ratanen and if he doesn't take it, he might get traded again. This is all so interesting.
Chicago: I mean, good luck making this happen anytime soon.
Colorado Avalanche: Absolutely correct take. Why keep acting like you're gonna bring Gabriel Landeskog into the lineup in the middle of a playoff run for which you have insanely high aspirations, after all this time away?
Columbus Blue Jackets: Not often the local media gets to dunk on another market so you can't blame 'em for taking the opportunity.
Dallas Stars: Yup.
Detroit Red Wings: You just can't be dropping games like this.
Edmonton Oilers: Not an ideal headline.
Florida Panthers: From the word that's starting to get out, it seems like this might be a pretty long-term (potentially season-ending?) injury for Matthew Tkachuk. Brutal.
Los Angeles Kings: The way people are talking about ol' Drew Doughty post-Four Nations makes me think they didn't see him play much in that tournament.
Minnesota Wild: Ah, that's bad.
Montreal Canadiens: What do you mean "anymore?" Someone post the astronaut with a gun meme.
Nashville Predators: Nice to see a GM just come out and say "I'm selling and here are the prices and gimme a call." Everyone should act this way.
New Jersey Devils: Probably not great to be talking about a prospect this way.
New York Islanders: Unfortunately this has been the case for way longer than just the next couple weeks.
New York Rangers: Is that good?
Ottawa Senators: Well, this would be bad for them.
Philadelphia Flyers: What do you mean you're not hyped for the deadline?
Pittsburgh Penguins: I'm gonna go with "neither" on this one.
San Jose Sharks: Remember that thing about being hyped for the deadline? Yeah.
Seattle Kraken: Would absolutely love for this guy to really take a step.
St. Louis Blues: If you say so.
Tampa Bay Lightning: I would also love for Victor Hedman to start being awesome again.
Toronto Maple Leafs: I imagine so.
Utah [fill in the blank later]: So many teams love to pretend.
Vancouver Canucks: I'm fascinated by this extension.
Vegas Golden Knights: I'll believe this when I see it.
Washington Capitals: This is a team in the Presidents' Trophy chase but the goals chase is all anyone wants to talk about. Just funny, that's all.
Winnipeg Jets: Okay, no problem from meno problem from me. Thanks.
Gold Star Award
I went to a couple high-stakes college hockey games this weekend and watched bits and pieces of a few NHL games, and I gotta say the difference in quality between the Four Nations final and everything I watched this weekend is crazy. All the college and NHL games were good, too. But still, what a drop off. Thank you, best-on-best hockey. I miss you already.
Minus of the Weekend
Given that it seems to have produced multiple season-ending injuries, I wonder if the NHL will change how they handle things for a midseason tournament next year or in 2028. Something to keep an eye on, but man that sucks for the players involved.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "HFpapi" swung for the fences:
To Carolina:
To Minnesota:
Slavin
Rantanen