What We Learned: Vegas' huge lineup change wasn't the plan, but might be the solution
The Minnesota Wild have to feel like Saturday night was a big missed opportunity.
The biggest storyline in their series was that Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov had combined to score eight goals in the first three games, while Jack Eichel and Mark Stone had zero for Vegas. Just as important, but much less publicized, was the fact that Eichel and Stone had been outscored 6-1 and 5-1, respectively, in all situations.
It wasn't just that the Wild's best players were their most impactful, playing to their ultimate potential against a heavily favored opponent, but also that Vegas' weren't close to keeping up. You could make a legitimate argument that whether it was pure goal differential or even underlying numbers (both Eichel and Stone were in the 36-38 percent range in terms of expected goals, for example), those two star forwards had been the Golden Knights' worst contributors.
That was not the case on Saturday. Those two Knights stars ran the show, pushing play in what they would consider the right direction, and while they didn't personally score, Stone directly set up Vegas' controversial third goal, and Eichel picked up a secondary assist on the early power-play goal the team badly needed. It was their first on the man advantage since Game 1.
And so when the Wild came back to tie the game and force overtime on Saturday, the path to an unlikely series victory had never been clearer: They were forcing those players into what were basically career-worst playoff performances, and a commanding 3-1 lead was there for the taking. But Vegas' depth players picked up the slack for their leaders, scoring a wacky goal deep into the first overtime. The Wild lost on home ice despite weathering a better performance from Eichel and Stone, and now head back to Nevada all square, with the home-ice advantage they wrested from the higher seed — which many would call a Cup favorite — now sadly squandered.
There is at least a blueprint here. Whatever they did in the first three games is perhaps something they can replicate, but also perhaps not. They were never gonna hold those guys to 80-something PDOs for the whole series, in all likelihood, but 30-something percent of the xGs, the scoring chances, that was theoretically doable. Except the players Minnesota deployed against Stone and Eichel at 5-on-5 in the first three games were, by a sizable margin, mostly the top line (Kaprizov, Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek) and the pairing of Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber. On the balance, those five players ground Eichel and Stone into dust. But in Game 4, it was more of the same for the top line, but the most-used pair against Eichel was actually Jake Middleton and Jared Spurgeon. It didn't go super well for those five, though when Brodin and Faber — who were still heavily used against Stone — out with the top line it was more of a draw.
Normally you could say, hey, whatever, it happens. Except of course the Wild had last change and were therefore choosing the matchups. Bruce Cassidy was doing a good job of getting Eichel and Stone out there against Middleton and Spurgeon on the fly, but also that John Hynes wasn't completely committed to hard-matching the Brodin/Faber pair on faceoffs where he, again, would have had last pick. And once Cassidy broke up the top line about halfway through the game, that meant Stone drew Brodin/Faber away from Eichel, and things got very hectic indeed for Minnesota.
Maybe they were a victim of their own success; the Wild's five best players were so effective against the Knights' biggest stars that they forced Cassidy's hand and shuffled the lines after saying he would prefer not to do so. And if Cassidy determines that being able to roll a Stone-led line then an Eichel line, rather than one Stone/Eichel line, is a good path forward, well, it's hard to see Minnesota being able to shut them both down in the remaining two or three games of this series.
Sometimes when you're the underdog, you just throw your hands up, right? The Wild didn't get a ton of upset consideration going into this series and getting to a 2-all tie through four games is in some ways a victory. But the way this series had gone felt like it was all tilting in Minnesota's direction. The benefit of being a team like Vegas and having a deep bench of guys who have All-Star talent is that you can choose to put most of your eggs in one basket, or not do that, as the situation dictates. Minnesota, for all the talent on its top line, does not have the luxury.
Maybe it was a one-time thing, but why mess with something that clearly unsteadied the Wild at 5-on-5? It felt like this series was right in their grasp, but the higher seed cruelly snatched that hope away. Narrow margins at this time of year, for sure, but more often than not, leaning on your depth advantage will win you a series.
Both teams still need two more wins, so there's always that glimmer of hope, but this now maybe feels a little too much like Vegas was able to right the ship at the exact right time. Good teams, and more specifically, good coaches adjust.
What We Learned
Carolina Hurricanes: Yeah I'd be pissed, too. The goalie gets bumped on a nothing play. No penalty, presumably no supplemental discipline. (Not that there should be, really.) But now the potential for yet another Freddie Andersen injury looms large, not so much over this series, which feels basically finished, but over the remainder of what they no doubt hoped would be another lengthy playoff run.
Colorado Avalanche: This is why everyone should have been really worried when the Avalanche turned over like half their roster throughout the season. They now have, what, eight or nine guys who can take over a game and win it for you? It's still a 2-2 series, but…
Dallas Stars: Apparently it's once again time to act like Miro Heiskanen is going to be available any day now. Feels like it's been six straight weeks of this. Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn't. I don't know why this is all Stars people seem to be talking about. There's other people on this team, right? Some of them have played recently? Locals maybe ought to talk about them more.
Edmonton Oilers: Did starting Calvin Pickard doom the Oilers? No. They have bigger problems than just who's not-stealing the game on any particular night. Like a roster problem, a health problem, a bad luck problem. But at the end of the day, they have two of the five best forwards alive, and sometimes, that's plenty. Now the Kings need to find a solution to this problem, and they might not have one.
Florida Panthers: Not saying I personally think he should have been suspended, but Matthew Tkachuk getting zero supplemental discipline for his hit on Jake Guentzel should raise eyebrows. Not just because of the whole "we only hit people with the puck" thing, but because of the game situation when it happened. Clearly, Tkachuk was just trying to hurt someone. That's his game and that's fine. But the reason there was no discipline here is simple to the outside observer: Tampa put Guentzel back out right after the hit and didn't, like Florida did with Sasha Barkov, act like he was questionable for the next game. Don't know why they didn't. They should have. But that's probably why no suspension. Simple.
Los Angeles Kings: The Kings just got dominated after going up 2-0, this series is tied, blah blah blah who cares. Let's hear it for the harmonicas. They MUST be back for Game 5. It's that simple. No choice now.
Minnesota Wild: How you know the tide is going out: Local media talking about "admirable" efforts in losses. When that starts getting brought up by the people who cover them every day all season and are therefore more likely to cheerlead for them? That's a vibe shift. Can't be ignored, and it doesn't portend good things for Game 5 and beyond.
Montreal Canadiens: This kinda feels like one of those series that we look back on and tell ourselves this is how they planted the seeds for some sort of deep playoff run three or five years from now. Oh they learned so much, we'll say. All these games are close, physical, and fun, and if you wanna say maybe Game 4 goes differently if they aren't forced to start their backup, I think most people would be happy to let you. None of that changes the outcome, though.
New Jersey Devils: Nope! Next question. Not much else to say. The game yesterday had a funereal air for a reason.
Ottawa Senators: All that stuff I said above about the Wild? Seems not to apply here. Maybe it's the rivalry and the fact that they just won, as opposed to their most recent game being a loss, but they're not running up the white flag despite having zero regulation wins in the season. Respectable but ultimately it's almost certainly futile.
St. Louis Blues: This is why I always say vibes are so important to keep an eye on. This series is tied. And the way the last two games have gone, you have to be 100000000 percent sure the Blues have this in the bag. The puck is flying into the net for them. Sure, the Jets have a huge advantage in expected goals, possession, whatever you want to say. But the Blues are outscoring them 16-10. And it feels like the momentum is building. Ai ai ai.
Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts are another team like the Avalanche. "Oh, two, three, four guys aren't capital-G Going? Okay, we still have a few more we can count on to do that." Enter Nick Paul. He has a big game and all of a sudden that series isn't quite so daunting. They still need to win three before Florida wins two, and the Panthers also have the depth to make that a problem for Tampa. Should be a hell of a rest of the series.
Toronto Maple Leafs: It would be really really really really really really really really funny if they blew this. I don't think they will obviously but the fact that it's even being talked about is so cool. What a team.
Vegas Golden Knights: Honestly, pretty ballsy from Cassidy. Break up the top line, stick with the goalie who gave up a bunch of goals on not a lot of shots in Games 2 and 3. Not something most coaches would be afraid of, obviously, but Vegas losing in the first round would be a huge failure for them and this isn't a team that you'd call shy about making big changes in the offseason.
Washington Capitals: The Postseason of Magical Thinking, once again. Tom Wilson has been throwing his body around this whole time — your mileage may vary on whether it's all been good for his team — but this time he gets one big hit and his team's second, entirely meaningless ENG and he's the story. People will just say anything.
Winnipeg Jets: At this point, we can just say it: Connor Hellebuyck does indeed have an "important games" problem and I don't know how you fix it. He has an .863 playoff save percentage over the last three years. It doesn't make any sense. He's a future Hall of Famer, but it turns mid-April and this happens? Real question: What would the average USHL goalie of the year do with the exact workload Hellebuyck has had these last three postseasons? How much worse would he be?
Gold Star Award
I keep talking about the Gabe Landeskog thing in here but man, what a story.
Minus of the Weekend
I'm obviously very critical of Hellebuyck now but the team in front of him might want to consider playing like they've been in the NHL before. Just my thoughts.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "Gurglesons" has playoff fever:
9th overall for Pavel Mintyukov
Anaheim is somewhat flush at LHD, PIT needs young NHL ready LHD talent, Ducks can potentially package 8th and 9th together to move up in the 2025 draft.
Would be willing to take on a cap dump like Strome or Gudas from Anaheim too.