Elite Prospects Olympic Stock Watch Part 2: Hockey Canada orientation camp

Hockey Canada recently announced the roster of NHL players it would invite to its late-August Olympic orientation camp.

That’s where the reigning Four Nations gold medal winners will start mapping out what their roster for the Milano Cortina Olympic Games will look like. While final rosters won't be due until late December or early January, you can bet at least a few decisions will be made by the end of camp.

Back in February, some players already started to make their case at Four Nations. But after a few more months of regular-season action, a full playoff run, and most of an offseason, the picture has surely shifted.

As always, when you try to narrow the premier hockey nation’s depth chart down to 25 spots (three goalies and 22 skaters), some names seem like stretches and several omissions feel like snubs.

So let's go through the list, break down who's a lock, who would have to play their way off the roster, and who needs a red-hot start in 2025-26 to make their case.

This is Part 2 of the Elite Prospects Olympic Stock Watch:

The Locks

In putting together this list, there wasn't much debate about the handful of players who are effectively guaranteed to make the team.

We can start with the "first six" Canada already named to the team, who were obviously always guaranteed to go to the Olympics and now will only be replaced if they get injured: Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Sam Reinhart, and Brayden Point up front, and Cale Makar on the blue line.

That's the easy part.

We also think Sam Bennett, Mitch Marner, and Mark Stone will all make the team up front if they're healthy. Josh Morrissey and Devon Toews feel like the only guarantees on the blue line. In goal, Four Nations hero Jordan Binnington is all but assured a roster spot, if not the outright claim to the starter's net.

Not a lot to discuss for any of these guys. As some of the three or four best players in the world at their positions, they bring a quality of play and specific dimensions to their game that Canada will definitely want. The only semi-iffy inclusion on this list is probably Reinhart, an elite two-way guy who doesn't really score as much as you might want most years, but who's already in the "first six." We're all on the same page here.

With those players considered locks, we think Canada is already guaranteed to take: 1 of 3 goalies, 4 of 8 defensemen, and 8 of 14 forwards. However, there were some disagreements…

Debate No. 1: Drew Doughty

RL: I think Doughty is a lock. Not because he's necessarily going to earn it via his play this season, but because he didn't really earn his Four Nations spot last year (largely due to injury) either, and still made it. Not only that, he was fourth among Canadian D in TOI. So, add in the expected deference to veterans and leadership, and just the fact that this will be one last go-round for him at the international level, I kinda doubt Canada will leave him sitting at home.

CR: It’s a fair stance to take, and I love Doughty. He brings leadership and personality to the rink. And you always know you’ll get 100 percent from him. But I don’t think you can chisel his name in stone at this point. He’ll be 36 by the time the Olympics kick off. If he struggles early in the season, it’ll be difficult to justify his roster spot over some of the younger players. 

Debate No. 2: Brad Marchand and Carter Verhaeghe

CR: After the Four Nations, I figured that was the last time we’d see Brad Marchand playing at a true best-on-best. His postseason performance with the Panthers has altered that thinking. Like Doughty, the leadership and locker room love that emanates from him is worth its weight in… potential gold. But at 37 and after a very long season, we’ll see how his first half looks. I feel he’s more of a lock than Doughty.

As for Verhaeghe, this is a guy who wasn’t on the Four Nations roster and dipped back to being a 20-goal, 50-point player. No chance he’s a lock for the team, even with his standout playoff history. Fringe guy? Sure. Probable? I’m not even willing to go that far. 

RL: Here are two more guys that feel like locks to me personally. Maybe not so much because of what I expect them to do on the ice in the first few months of 2025-26 — Marchand ought to be riding high thanks to Matthew Tkachuk's extended absence from the Florida lineup, shuffling him up the depth chart of an elite team — but because these are capital-C Champions. Of the 42 players Canada invited to orientation camp, six won at least one Cup with the Panthers, another three did so with the Lightning, three with the Avalanche, and so on. I'm not saying these are the best possible choices, but pedigree seems to matter to at least some extent here, and with Verhaeghe in particular, he appears to have been selected for camp ahead of some other forwards who deserve a longer look. I think that kinda indicates how willing Hockey Canada is to value championship experience.

The Probables

Only a handful of guys fell into this section for us. Think of these players as guys who would have to struggle so badly in the lead-up to Olympic rosters being due that Hockey Canada would be forced to leave them at home.

We agree that Mark Scheifele and Travis Konecny fall into this category up front, and Thomas Harley is pretty close to a lock from the blue line, but not quite all the way there.

At that point, Canada would have taken: 1 of 3 goalies, 6 of 8 defensemen, and 11 of 14 forwards. Opportunities for the rest of the invitees are drying up quickly.

Let's talk about two players who might fall into this group, but also might not:

Debate No. 3: John Tavares and Tom Wilson

RL: I had both of these guys here for very different reasons. Obviously, Tavares did not make the Four Nations roster, and that seems to be a great way to at least earn the invite. I can acknowledge that Tavares on international-sized rinks doesn't fill me with confidence from a team-building standpoint, but to me, he's the old hand, the veteran they'll invite for leadership and because he can still go (a bit) as a depth guy. I mostly just think you don't invite a player to camp at this stage of his career if you don't think he has a better chance of making the team than most of the younger guys on the roster.

As far as Wilson goes, he almost made the Four Nations team and acquitted himself well last season. But when we were talking about this list, Cam's argument against him making the team checked out immediately when he told me what it was, so…

CR: I don’t think Tavares has a realistic chance of making this team. The speed is a concern. You have better goal scorers available. You have better two-way centres available. You have better leaders available. He’d help on the man advantage, but again, better options out there. He’s a good player who was once a great player, but he doesn’t have a leg up to get a spot on this team. 
As for Wilson, he definitely brings a unique set of skills, but will they be utilized to their maximum at the Olympics? If anything, his spot was best used in the Four Nations, where physicality, fighting, and intimidation were key elements. Most of those elements will not be tolerated under IIHF rules. I still think he could make this team with a big start, but I also think management will look at him and envision at least one 5-minute major against the US, and you don’t want to be giving up too many of those.

Debate No. 4: Seth Jarvis

RL: I see Jarvis as a little more of a fringe player, even though he made the Four Nations roster, but mostly because he's relatively young and I don't know how many spots Hockey Canada is going to want to leave open for guys who are under 25. He's coming off back-to-back 30-goal seasons, so I think they should definitely include him at the bottom of the lineup, at minimum, but I don't know how committed they are to that.

CR: I see Seth Jarvis as at worst being a probable to make this squad. Yes, he’s young, but he’s also one of the very best two-way wingers in the game. He was 12th in Selke voting this year, and he’d have been higher up my list if I had a vote. He’s a proven scorer. He just led the Canes in playoff points, and his inclusion on the Four Nations roster tells me Hockey Canada realizes how valuable and versatile he is. He passed his audition. 

The Fringe Guys

At this point of the exercise, we are still looking for two goalies, two defensemen, and two forwards. That's it.

Here's where we agree: As far as the two non-Binnington goalies to get the orientation invite — Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — their attendance indicates inclination to bring them along, but neither feels like a guarantee for Italy. If they're even mediocre once the regular season rolls around, they’ll be passed over. Whether they make it is totally up to them. (This is where some of the most obvious snubs from the camp roster have an opportunity to make their case, but we'll get to those goalies later.)

We also agree that, on the blue line, a few of these invitees are close to “probable,” but since there isn’t much room left, it makes the path to a roster spot more perilous.

Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard and Mackenzie Weegar all have clear pros and cons. Dobson just got a big contract, but will he even be the No. 1 defenseman on his own NHL team this fall? If Lane Hutson is getting the bulk of the top-unit power-play time, much of Dobson's value and production will take a hit.

Likewise, Bouchard might be a probable if we could guarantee him top power-play minutes on the Canadian roster. But with Makar locked into that role, those minutes aren’t available. He’s excellent when used in the right way, but in best-on-best international play, that’s far from certain.

Weegar would be a good choice as a more defensively sound, bottom-of-the-lineup guy, but there are better options for that role, too.

Up front is where things get more complicated. We agree that the younger guys they invited — Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Robert Thomas, and Nick Suzuki — aren't likely to make the team, but it's also not hard to imagine a world where one of them does if they show they've taken a step from October to December. Maybe one of them is the 14th forward, but no more than one of them is likely to get the nod.

Otherwise, veterans like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are a hot start away from at least fishing for that same No. 14 role.

Debate No. 5: Shea Theodore

CR: As far as offensively inclined blueliners, Canada isn’t as juiced up as one would think. Makar is the best in the world, but there isn’t an obvious No. 2 — especially if they leave Bouchard at home. Theodore has 140 points in his last 169 games. In choosing him, they bring in a player they know: a winner, and a player capable of putting up substantial offensive metrics while playing a more responsible defensive game than a guy like Bouchard. He’s right near the top of the "Probable” list for me.

RL: I mostly see him as more of a fringe guy for now because I think they're gonna want to keep their options open, but there's no doubt he's one of their best choices they could make to be on their second pairing. At this point they're pretty close to full on the blue line, though, and it might be time to leave some options open. But if he makes it, who could possibly complain?

Debate No. 6: Brandon Hagel

RL: For me, Hagel is going to have to show that his 90-point season isn't a one-and-done. If he's a little slow out of the gate this season, I see some guys leapfrogging him even if "high-level production" was never his stock and trade before he got to Tampa, and may not even be his best feature now. Awesome player, but I think he punched above his weight last season, and if he's even down around a 70-point pace, Hockey Canada may look elsewhere.

CR: Brandon Hagel not only proved he could hang with the very best in the world last season, he showed the Canadian brass that he was willing to do anything and everything — including “putting his head through a wall,” shedding the mitts and throwing hands with Matthew Tkachuk. Even if he isn’t pacing for another 35-goal, 90-point season through the first several months, his two-way acumen and snarl are good enough for me. He's probable.

Probably Not

For most of this group, making the Olympic roster would require starting the season on fire. Not impossible, but not something we’re willing to bet on. 

On the blue line, Travis Sanheim is likely the best bet to snag a spot, but that hinges on two things: how the Flyers look under their new coach, and whether any of the defenders ahead of him get off to hot starts of their own. You could make a case for Colton Parayko to be in that same conversation, especially coming off such a strong year and the veteran presence he could add, but he would have to prove his late-career improvement under Jim Montgomery wasn't a fluke. 

Don't have much to say about Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, except that they feel like long shots at best.

Up front, you can make an argument for one of the remaining invitees to make it, but that's probably a best-case scenario. Easy to see where two or three of Quinton Byfield, Anthony Cirelli, Bo Horvat, Zach Hyman, or Wyatt Johnston put up big-time points while their teams play extremely well in the first three months of the season. But there just aren't many forward spots up for grabs.

Still in the Mix

Finally, let's talk snubs.

In goal, the big name is Logan Thompson, who will have to demonstrate that his insanely good 2024-25 was no fluke before he gets the call from Hockey Canada. Totally within the realm of possibility, but we're playing show-and-tell with him right now.

Mackenzie Blackwood playing well for another three months behind the Avs gets him into the conversation. And Darcy Kuemper will have to follow up his career year at age 34 with a similar performance at age 35. That seems less likely than Thomson and Blackwood (and Hill and Montembeault, for that matter) keeping up appearances.

On the blue line, we really only see fringe-at-best cases for guys like Thomas Chabot and Dougie Hamilton, but they have to be on the radar; the Canadian defense corps is a little thinner than you might think. Perhaps Jakob Chychrun or Morgan Rielly get into the mix as well, but that would take a lot of circumstances coming together.

Up front, the biggest "snub" is probably someone like Jordan Kyrou or Dylan Strome, both very productive players. It feels like guys with redundant skills or fewer holes in their game, or maybe just higher ceilings, are edging them out right now, but who knows what 2025-26 holds?

Other guys who might be able to make their case for consideration: Mat Barzal (would have to outplay Horvat, his teammate and an actual orientation camp invitee); Pierre-Luc Dubois (would probably need to score at a 30-goal pace at a bare minimum); and Adam Fantilli (would need to take the kind of massive step that puts him ahead of Bedard, Celebrini, Suzuki, and Byfield on the "young guy deserves the final forward slot" depth chart).

So in the end, we think there are really maybe two or three spots at every position up for grabs right now. And that's being a little generous. That said, they still have a whole orientation camp, preseason, and 25 or so games of regular-season hockey before anyone has to make the final decision.

Should be a fun ride.