After one gold medal in the last eight U18s, where does USA Hockey go now?

For about 15 years, USA Hockey dominated the Under-18 World Championships. 

In fact, from 2002 to 2017, the Americans won gold in 10 of the 16 tournaments, took silver in three, and only missed the podium once, in 2003, when they fell to Russia in the bronze-medal match. 

Throughout the history of the event, the Americans have as many gold medals, 11, as any other country has total medals combined. 

And in many ways, it made sense. USA Hockey launched the National Team Development Program in 1996, three years before the first Under-18 Worlds, designing a program purpose-built to win titles at the Under-18 level. While the rest of the countries bring teams compiled for Under-18s, USA Hockey was bringing a cohesive unit that had largely played together for two seasons. 

Add in the fact that Hockey Canada rarely iced its best team, as the U18s don’t mesh well with the CHL playoffs, and the Americans went to the annual tournament not only as favourites, but expected to win the gold medal. 

In fact, for a long time, it almost felt like a rite of passage for USA Hockey’s NTDP classes to finish their two-year stay in Plymouth (or Ann Arbor before that) with a gold medal around their neck. 

But since winning gold in 2017, things have taken a dramatic turn for USA Hockey in the tournament. 

In the past eight tournaments, the Americans have won gold once, in 2023, and had the most disappointing performance in program history this spring, falling to Latvia in the quarterfinals. 

That loss, a 5-2 setback, is simply the biggest exclamation point on a tumultuous time for the NTDP and provides more questions than answers about where the program sits in the greater hockey universe moving forward. 

Historically speaking, the NTDP thrived because of its past pedigree and what it meant for players who wanted to play college hockey. The NTDP, and the USHL for that matter, were a path to higher American education that the CHL couldn’t provide under old NCAA rules. 

But when the NCAA rules changed roughly a year ago, creating eligibility for CHL players, the NTDP lost one of its biggest selling points. This was most obvious in the case of J.P. Hurlbert, who left the NTDP after his Under-17 season to play in the WHL with the Kamloops Blazers and still kept his eventual NCAA eligibility to play at Michigan. 

Hurlbert, who had 97 points in 68 WHL games this season, would have still been eligible for the Under-18s, but wasn’t invited to re-join his prior teammates, which many believe is related to his decision to leave after USA Hockey brought other CHLers to the tournament. 

It’s something others in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 birth ages have watched closely. Hurlbert's omission is going to have some impact on tremors, according to parents and agents EP has spoken with. And while the CHL is losing some of its bigger names at the end of the line to the NCAA, like Gavin McKenna to Penn State or Porter Martone to Michigan State, the CHL leagues are now in a position to pilfer 17- and 18-year-old American talent at an even higher rate from the NTDP. 

So, from a USA Hockey perspective, how do you handle this, and how do you manage it with the fallout of a disappointing showing at what is supposed to be the showcase event? 

NCAA teams, once the NTDP’s biggest ally, aren’t trumpeting it like they used to – especially after the Frozen Four was heavily impacted by players with CHL experience last month in Las Vegas. As one NCAA coach told EP this week, the NTDP still works, but it needs to be tweaked to better fit the new reality, especially after some 2010-born players who were high on the NTDP list opted for CHL futures instead. 

“I’m not sure what the best answer is, but it’s probably time for a deep look at what does and doesn't work there,” the coach said. “We still have recruits coming from there, for example, but it’s no longer a must for us.”

And without any medal at the Under-18s this spring, it’s probably a fair ask for any elite upcoming player to consider whether it’s really the best place for development in those vital seasons.