The 2018 WJC underdog that could win it all
Everyone loves an underdog. Be it professional sports, fictional stories or real life tales – there are few things quite as stirring as watching an unlikely hero triumph against impossible odds. The sport of hockey has had its fair share of underdog stories, perhaps none bigger than the 1980 Lake Placid “Miracle on Ice” where a squad of American college athletes managed to defeat the seemingly unstoppable Soviet team to take home an Olympic gold on home ice. In the last few decades, the parity of the sport has increased to the point where you’d be hard-pressed to identify an underdog story of the same magnitude. Still, looking at the 2018 World Junior Championships in Buffalo there are certainly a few teams that should be considered underdogs relative to the competition.
Since the 2001 tournament in Moscow when the Czech Republic last managed to win a gold medal – coincidentally their second gold in a row at that point – five nations have reigned supreme when it comes to capturing the medals. Just take a look:
WJC medals since 2001
Canada – Six gold, six silver, one bronze (13 medals)
USA – four gold, zero silver, three bronze (7 medals)
Russia – three gold, six silver, five bronze (14 medals)
Sweden – one gold, four silver, one bronze (6 medals)
Finland – two gold, zero silver, four bronze (6 medals)
The 16-year long dominance has only been dented on two occasions; by the Czech Republic in 2005 (bronze) and by Slovakia in 2015 (bronze). Quite remarkable if you think about it. The 2018 tournament is shaping up to be no exception as Finland, Canada and Sweden have all been mentioned as odds-on favorites to medal with USA and Russia in line to pick up the slack should one (or each) of them falter. That leaves Denmark, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Belarus as the potential underdogs.
Now, the objective of this piece is to identify one specific underdog that has a reasonable chance of upsetting the established favorites. To do this, we begin by taking a look at the group stage. Group A appears to be a veritable death trap with Canada always dangerous, USA the defending champs and Finland eager to avenge a mediocre showing last tournament. If you’re Denmark or Slovakia, your best bet is to win the game against your “underdog” opponent and hope for a point or two against the rest of the teams. In the end, one of these teams are likely to finish 4th in the group… which isn’t exactly ideal seeing as that would force them to play the best team of Group B in the quarterfinals.
For this reason, we will consider Denmark and Slovakia eliminated from contention.
Moving to Group B, things are slightly more open-ended. Either Sweden or Russia are expected to end up at the very top of the group but with three nations – Switzerland, Belarus and Czech Republic – all gunning for the 3rd seed behind them, things could get quite interesting. Belarus’ appearance in the 2018 tournament should be considered a pure learning experience for a nation that has never made the playoffs at the top level of WJC competition. That leaves Switzerland and Czech Republic, two teams that have experienced varying degrees of success in the past few tournaments. When comparing the two, it is hard to ignore the crop of talented forwards the Czechs have coming up. 2017 first-round picks Martin Necas (12th overall, Carolina Hurricanes) and Filip Chytil (21st overall, New York Rangers) both got a small cup of coffee at the NHL level early this season and are expected to be in the Czech lineup. Add projected Top-5 pick in 2018, Halifax Mooseheads leading scorer Filip Zadina, to the mix and you’ve got yourself the makings of a challenger.
Looking at the tournament objectively a lot of things need to happen for the Czech Republic to be able to threaten the more established nations, but if there is any nation that could pull of an underdog victory – it’s them.
The Czech’s preliminary WJC roster
???? | Filip Pešán nominoval na přípravný kemp před MS juniorů 2️⃣7️⃣ hráčů! Český tým se bude připravovat na vrchol sezony v ???????? Niagara Falls???????? #U20CZE pic.twitter.com/pPwo0EHQ0w
— Hokejový nároďák (@narodnitym) December 4, 2017