Five bold predictions for the 2025 NHL Draft

LOS ANGELES, California – Boldly predicting the NHL Draft is not for the faint of heart.

I began this exercise seven years ago. Bored and sweaty in a downtown Dallas hotel room, waiting for the annual media mixer to kick off (never pass up free food and drink on the commissioner’s dime). Since then, it’s become tradition.

There have been wins along the way: forecasting the 2019 D-man surge, correctly calling Arthur Kaliyev’s fall, nailing Zach Benson’s slide in 2023, and Ivan Demidov getting scooped up by Montreal just last year.

But for every hit, there are a dozen misses. That’s the point. These aren’t safe bets, they’re bold predictions. They’re meant to turn heads, not guarantee results. As much as I’d like to cosplay as Nostradamus, I’m just a guy chasing chaos with a keyboard.

This year, though? It feels even more unpredictable than usual. There’s no Bedard-like anchor at the top, no McDavid or Matthews to stabilize the board. The prospects at the top are all wildly different, with polarizing toolkits and developmental arcs. Scouts are split. Executives are tight-lipped. And with the draft decentralized intel is harder to come by and more prone to smokescreens.

Put simply: this class is weird, and this draft is wide open. Which makes it the perfect storm for bold calls.

To up the ante, I’ve added a little something new this year. You won’t just get my predictions, you’ll get five bonus ones from a handful of scouts and executives around the league.

Strap in. Things are about to get spicy.

Bold Prediction #1: James Hagens Slips

Once viewed as the frontrunner to go first overall, James Hagens now finds himself in an unfamiliar position: sliding. Not because he’s done anything wrong, he was electric for stretches again this season, showcasing the same blinding speed, elite puck control, and hockey IQ that made him the early favorite. But at under 5-foot-11, the physical profile just doesn’t mesh with several of the teams drafting in the top five.

And when you’re not a generational slam dunk, every inch matters.

Make no mistake: teams like him. Some love him. But with each pick, he’ll be put beside one other player, and teams end up choosing the alternative. He becomes the “almost.” The close second. The highly respected but ultimately passed-over candidate. Always the bridesmaid.

Until finally, mercifully, he’s selected.

Expect Hagens to return to Boston College for another year, and then arrive in the NHL ready to scorch the earth. If he falls into the 7–10 range, he’ll provide incredible value for the team that scoops him. And he won’t forget the handful of clubs that passed.

That chip on his shoulder is going to be massive

Bold Prediction #2: No USNTDP Players Go in Round One

The USNTDP has become a staple of highly drafted prospects in recent memory. But this might be the year the streak dies.

It’s been a down cycle for the Americans in general, and for the NTDP specifically. Their top draft-eligible talents didn’t quite take the steps scouts were hoping for, and many of the high-upside Americans in this class weren’t with the program due to their birthdates.

James Hagens? Gone to Boston College for his draft year. Logan Hensler? Headed to Wisconsin and playing meaningful minutes against older competition. Shane Vansaghi? Jumped to Michigan State. Even Cullen Potter and William Horcoff, two of the more intriguing NTDP-eligible names, opted for school instead, with Horcoff making the move midseason and actually turning heads in the NCAA down the stretch.

So where does that leave the NTDP in 2025? On the outside looking in. It's not a shot at the program, they’ve been a development machine for decades, but this class just doesn’t have a first-round lock among the current crop.

And for the first time in 27 years, that could mean a goose egg on Day 1.

Bold Prediction #3: Three Goalies Go in the Final 10 Picks of Round One

Let’s get this out of the way early: this is not a highly regarded class of netminders. There isn’t a slam dunk future starter here. For most of the season, scouts have referred to the 2025 crop of netminders as thin, uncertain, or simply “meh.” But come the back end of Round 1, when the forward and defense pools start to dry up, teams may start seeing the crease a little more clearly.

Why take a bottom-pairing D or future fourth-liner when you could roll the dice on a goalie who might become a legitimate NHL starter? It’s the magic bean theory: if you’re not sure what you’re getting late in the round anyway, you might as well swing big.

Pyotr Andreyanov helped fuel that mindset. Word is he was outstanding at the Gold Star showcase in Florida earlier this month, flashing high-end mobility, patience, and an assertive presence in the net. Several scouts mentioned him as the big winner from that event. Meanwhile, Semyon Frolov has been a steady riser all year in the MHL, gaining traction as the kind of technically refined goalie teams love to develop.

Then there’s Joshua Ravensbergen, who started the year as the consensus No. 1 goalie in the class. His play remains intriguing. He’s big, composed, and tracks well. But there’s been some whisper-level concern about his hip. It hasn’t cratered his stock, but it may drop him behind the surging imports.

Still, with so little clarity at the tail end of the round, don’t be shocked if three teams decide to take the long view and grab a goalie before the night is out.

Bold Prediction #4: A Top-Five Pick Gets Moved

It doesn’t happen often, but this year has the ingredients for a draft-night shake-up inside the top five.

The lack of a general consensus at the top, the fact that two clubs won the lottery and jumped up 10 spots, the vast amount of teams with multiple first round picks and looking to spice things up. It’s all adding up to potential fireworks.

Rumours have been abound that Chicago was offering the third-overall pick for a roster upgrade and long-term fit with Bedard.

At No. 4, the word is that Utah has made it known they’re open for business, even after landing JJ Peterka earlier this week. And Columbus? With two first-rounders and pressure to improve now, they could package their picks to move up or out entirely for NHL help.

One agent mentioned Nashville would listen at five.

It’s rare. It’s risky. But this year’s volatile mix of needs, uncertainty, and ambition feels like it’s going to push someone over the edge. A top-five pick will move, either in the build up or live and loud on the broadcast.

And when it does, the board will unravel in real time.

Bold Prediction #5: Trades Dominate the Day

We hear it every year. Buzz. Noise. Whispers. ACTION! And more often than not, it fizzles out. But this year? This year feels different.

The phones are hot. The tension is real. One NHL executive told me bluntly: “Everyone is available.” When pushed, he clarified: “Well… not everyone. But I haven’t seen this many teams talking about this many players before.”

Deals have already started, with JJ Peterka’s move setting the table. But the menu of names floating around out there is mouthwatering: Morgan Rielly. Noah Dobson. Jason Robertson. Rasmus Andersson. Erik Karlsson. Andrei Svechnikov. These aren’t spare parts, these are core players with value and term.

A few different forces converging to drive this potential trade-a-palooza.:

• Cap-clearing urgency from contenders looking to open space before July 1.
• Strategic swaps, where teams aren’t just dumping salary, they’re reshaping rosters.
• Philosophical shifts where clubs recognize that it’s time to rebuild, even if that means ripping out foundational pieces.

There's a belief among front offices that the current market is primed for movement, maybe more so than any year in recent memory. The combination of an expanded salary cap ceiling, a deep-ish middle class of players and unpredictable draft boards makes now a uniquely opportune moment to act.

So yes, we've all been burned before. But this time it might actually get loud.

Industry predictions - collected June 25th and 26th

“Dobson get's moved. I think Montreal gets him.”

“Malcolm Spence slides to round two.”

“Cameron Schmidt falls to round 4. Is that spicy?”

“A lot of people are saying Hagens will fall, but I think Martone could fall.”

“Ivankovic is the second goalie taken.” 

The NHL Draft has always been a host for the unexpected. For all the information floating around, all the whispers, and all the mock drafts scribbled out in the days leading up, the board rarely behaves as expected. 

This year, that unpredictability feels magnified. 

These predictions might not all come true. In fact, if they did, they wouldn’t have been nearly bold enough. But each represents the volatility and opportunity that envelopes the 2025 Draft. 

All that’s left is to hit play and watch it all unfold.