Smoke, buzz, and intel: What we’re hearing ahead of the 2026 NHL Draft
BUFFALO, New York — I’ve never had this many people text me first during draft week.
Some were trying to confirm picks. Some were trying to throw smoke. Others simply wanted to complain about the state of the league.
The phone hasn't stopped buzzing, and almost every conversation begins with the same sentence:
“What are you hearing?”
With less than 12 hours until the first pick, here’s what’s making the rounds.
San Jose wants to be the main character.
If there’s one organization determined to be the main character this week, it’s San Jose.
Holding No. 2 and openly entertaining calls on it already made the Sharks one of the most fascinating teams entering the week. Then Mike Grier moved William Eklund for the No. 9 pick.
It doesn’t appear that Plan A is simply walking to the podium twice and calling it a weekend. Multiple sources believe the Eklund trade wasn’t the finish line. It was supposed to be the setup.
The belief making the rounds is that San Jose had explored packaging No. 9, No. 27 and a prospect to Buffalo in an attempt to land Bowen Byram.
With Chicago paying more, they’ve shifted focus, and it appears San Jose is one of the more engaged bidders around Alexander Nikishin.
And if they do hold No. 9, San Jose suddenly controls another pivot point in the draft.
Daxon Rudolph. Keaton Verhoeff. Viggo Björck. Another trade entirely.
Very little would surprise me. One way or another, I’d be surprised if Mike Grier has a quiet Friday.
Speaking of Nikishin...
The list of interested teams keeps growing.
San Jose. St. Louis. Los Angeles. Anaheim. Vancouver. Winnipeg.
The number I've consistently heard attached to Nikishin? Eight years and $8-million annually.
It appears several teams are comfortable paying that freight, but maybe not Carolina? We'll see if anyone gets there.
Pittsburgh keeps circling
The Penguins are believed to be one of Björck's biggest fans.
The interest dates back to the Combine.
The problem is that getting into that range isn't exactly easy. The sense this week is that Pittsburgh has also shifted attention toward Ryan Lin, who may be a far more attainable trade-up target.
Both players receive rave reviews for their compete level, IQ, and skill. Just leave something on the table in the height category. Wes Clark and company have shown they’re far from afraid of that combination in recent years.
Benjamin Kindel, anyone?
Alexander Command
Every draft has one player whose name keeps popping up, and this year it’s Alexander Command.
I've now heard him mentioned by multiple evaluators as someone likely to go earlier than public rankings suggest.
The profile is easy to understand. Physical. Responsible. Powerful. A true two-way centre with enough offence to justify betting on the rest.
Sounds like it’ll be closer to 10 than 20.
Nobody can quite figure out Buffalo
I still think the Sabres hold No. 4 unless someone completely overwhelms them. Which could happen with the star-level names out there this week.
But holding and selecting a centre remains my expectation. Caleb Malhotra still feels like the cleanest fit. That said, there are definitely people inside the organization who love Björck.
Enough that I wouldn't completely dismiss the possibility.
Late Addition
Sources indicate that the club is still weighing options internally, but that Vincent Trocheck appears to be a favourite target.
Is it enough to be considered the clubhouse favourites to land the American centre? I think so.
The Šmits smoke isn't going away
This has probably been the most consistent piece of draft intel I've heard all week.
If the board falls the way many expect, Alberts Šmits feels like New York's guy. And why not? Big. Mobile. Punishing. And with a resting heart rate of about four beats per minute. His poise, both on and off the ice, is a huge part of the appeal.
Carels to Calgary still feels too perfect
Sometimes the obvious fit actually happens.
Carson Carels has made sense for Calgary for months. Could another team step in before the sixth pick?
Absolutely.
But if he's sitting there at No. 6, it still feels like one of the cleaner projections in the lottery.
That said, one concern surfaced repeatedly this week. His concussion history.
More than one evaluator brought it up independently, wondering if it could introduce enough uncertainty for another defenceman to jump him on a handful of boards.
One front-office member described it as "a real discussion" internally, while another pointed to the concussion Carels suffered during the WHL playoffs and the lingering effects that limited portions of his Combine testing.
Will it actually change where he's drafted?
Probably not. He’s highly respected among teams, with many considering him the best bet in the class, but it was one of the more common conversations surrounding the top defenceman class this week.
Does Verhoeff get past Seattle?
We know they like the player enough to wine and dine him at the Combine. Many around the league believe No. 7 is probably his floor.
If Verhoeff isn't available, I’m looking at Rudolph or Björck.
Emptying one executive’s notebook
Sometimes it’s better to simply dump the notebook.
One NHL executive offered these quick thoughts heading into the draft:
- Daxon Rudolph: Earlier than expected.
- Timofei Runtso: Earlier.
- Oliver Suvanto: Slides.
- Both Finnish defencemen — Juho Piiparinen and Samu Alalauri — later than expected.
- Marcus Nordmark: Later. “He really hurt his stock at the Combine.”
- Alexander Command: Earlier.
- Jonas Lagerberg Hoen: Earlier.
- Nikita Shcherbakov believes he’s going much earlier than people think.
- Russian goaltender, Dmitri Borichev: “Could be close” to Round 1.
- Simas Ignatavicius helped himself significantly at the Combine. “Great life story.”
- “The Rucks are overrated.”
Speaking of the Rucks, another club shared concerns about their lower-body strength — particularly Markus.
“Lanky, small frame. Small build and lacking maturity. A weak lower body is a huge red flag for injury. They’ll both need a lot of weight room time.”
Another scout’s notebook
Not every opinion matched — that’s what makes this class so fascinating.
One scout came away believing Jaxon Cover may have had one of the better interview weeks in the class.
“His story is incredible. Coming from the Cayman Islands, playing roller hockey until high school… he was just genuine. He really stood out.”
Interestingly, this scout didn’t think anyone significantly damaged their stock during interviews.
“I don’t put much weight into interviews unless there are underlying red flags.”
As for movement…
Likely picked earlier than expected
Likely picked later than expected
The strongest opinion centred around Villeneuve.
“The Lane Hutson comparison is a disservice to Lane. Xavier still has a long way to go. At the same age, Lane competed much harder defensively, even when things weren’t going his way.”
A few more rapid-fire notes...
Boone Jenner is not expected back in Columbus. Los Angeles continues to be viewed as one of the preferred landing spots.
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Sources indicate that Buffalo has been actively listening on Ryan McLeod. He’s a unique piece that several teams are interested in. 26 years old, on a good contract for three more seasons and coming off back-to-back 50-plus-point seasons.
The goal-scoring dipped significantly this season, and his quiet playoff showing may have Buffalo wondering if his value on the trade market outweighs his value in the lineup.
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I asked one GM if the cost for Matthew Knies was as prohibitive as we’d heard.
“Oh yeah, it is.”
One last thought...
If I've learned anything this week and throughout all the years I’ve been doing this, it’s this:
Nobody completely agrees.
Not on the order. Not on the defencemen. Not on the centres. Not on who belongs in the first round. It’s been a unique year, and that allows for a wide variance of opinions and assessments.
By this time tomorrow, half of this notebook will look prophetic. The other half could look ridiculous.
That’s draft week, baby.