Fantasy Hockey Feature: Will Nick Lardis' goalscoring translate?
Nick Lardis was drafted 67th overall by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2023. After a strong draft season, Lardis has increased his scoring dramatically. Due to his incredible production, people are wondering, what is his NHL upside? Can he score 30 goals in the NHL? 40? Let's dive in!
The Elite Prospects team had Lardis ranked 33rd in 2023 so we feel the Blackhawks got tremendous value at 67. The team was confident that he would score 50 in his draft plus one season, which was certainly on pace to do before the injury. The shooting ability was unequivocally his best asset, but he scored well in skating and hockey sense as well. His lack of physicality was the biggest concern and there were hopes that his playmaking would continue to blossom.
After an injury-shortened 2023-24, Lardis has had a blistering 2024-25 season for the OHL Brantford Bulldogs. He is not in elite company, alongside Mitch Marner and John Tavares for most goals in the OHL in the past 35 years. Going over a goal-per-game in the OHL is certainly something special. It remains to be seen if he can do this against professional goalies.
Looking at Mitch Brown’s tracking data, you can see that in his first OHL season, Lardis struggled. Though his transition game was slightly above average and his defence was close to average, the offence wasn’t there. The offence came around in 2022-23 and he had statistically the best expected goals in the OHL. 2023-24 had similar offencive numbers, but the defence regressed. His off-puck game is going to be one of his biggest hurdles and it’s disappointing to not see a bigger improvement in that area year-to-year.
In the pNHLe model, Lardis is currently projected to be a 79 point player. This would be a massive steal for the Blackhawks with such a late pick. His major comparables in the model are Jordan Kyrou, Vincent Trocheck, and Jason Robertson. Robertson seems like the closest stylistically, but there is obviously a big size difference. Ultimately, if he ends up as even close to Robertson, that will be a win.
In the Hockey Prospecting model, Lardis is maintaining his star potential at 21%. He was at 15% in his draft season, but has been able to raise it since and even raise his NHLer probability to 50%. We again see Trocheck in this model as a comparable. There are also comparisons to Brad Marchand and Brendan Gallagher. While those are both smaller forwards who scored well in the NHL, they were also much more physical. That’s not Lardis
The Fantasy Hockey Life player card shows that Lardis is in the 100th percentile for shots. We’re not sure he’s met a shot he didn’t like. He is only in the 20th percentile for hits and 50th percentile for blocks. Overall, his peripheral contributions in fantasy should be good, but mostly driven by his shots.
Brock Otten OHL Prospects coverage and Director of Scouting for McKeens
“It’s been nearly two decades since an OHL player scored 70 goals. Deadly on the powerplay from the right flank, that’s not Lardis’ full identity. Not only does he lead the OHL in powerplay goals, but he currently has 12 more even strength goals than the next closest OHL’er (Michael Misa). Bottom line, this isn’t someone who relies on the extra time and space given on the powerplay to create scoring chances. He’s doing it consistently in all situations.
Lardis’ breakout has been extremely encouraging and something that he has worked hard to achieve, rehabbing a wrist injury that shut down his season prematurely last year. He’s come back stronger, more assertive, more confident, and downright dominant.
For Lardis, it all starts with his speed. He consistently creates disadvantages thanks to his explosiveness and top gear. He creates separation from OHL defenders and backcheckers with ease and creates a lot based off of his ability to exploit this. He also has worked hard to be able to play at a lightning quick pace. As a draft-eligible player, he was best as a complementary piece because the hands hadn’t quite caught up to the feet. That’s not the case anymore. Lardis consistently creates his own chances because the hands also work in sync with the feet.
Obviously, you don’t hit the 70 goal mark in the OHL without an elite level shot. Lardis has a lightning quick and deceptive wrister, but he can also one time pucks cleanly from both the slot and the flank. Those excellent off puck habits that he developed as a complementary piece serve him extremely well. He times cuts well. He slips coverage consistently. He takes great support routes in transition to become a passing option. Perhaps, most impressively, Lardis isn’t a perimeter player despite his light frame. He attacks the middle and scores in a multitude of ways, which bodes well for his transition to the pros.
The big thing for Lardis will be the continued improvements in his strength and conditioning. He’s improved so much on the puck to be tougher to separate from the puck, and his engagement off the puck has become way more consistent. However, the jump to the pros will provide a new challenge for him. That said, Lardis’ game has always been best described as “quick strike.” He won’t need to be Sidney Crosby or Nathan MacKinnon in terms of strength and work rate on the puck to be a successful and productive NHL player. His upside remains sky high; first line, consistent 40 goal scorer high. I’d expect that he needs a year in the AHL before he’s ready for NHL action, but he’s on a big upward trajectory as a prospect.”
Whether or not you believe Brock’s projection for Lardis, one thing is clear, his stock has never been higher. It’s doubtful he hits his full potential of a consistent 40 goal scorer in the NHL. But even if he gets close, he’ll be a valuable asset. Certainly, he is more valuable than the second round draft pick where he was drafted. If someone will give you a star point-per-game player for Lardis, I’d take it.
