Fantasy Hockey Feature: Zach Benson growing in a dark space
At the time of writing, Buffalo Sabres winger Zach Benson has 130 career NHL regular season games with 21 goals and 53 points. Considering he will be a teenager until May, that is a strong level of production.
In fact, since 2007, here are the forwards similar to Benson by 60-minute rates of goals, primary assists, and shot attempts at 5-on-5:
At any stage of a person’s career, if they can be reasonably compared to Leon Draisaitl and Aleksander Barkov, it is worth investigating a lot further. So, let’s look at Benson’s prospect path, what he’s done in the NHL, and what this tells us about his future.
Buffalo drafted Benson 13th overall in the 2023 Draft and that was a stock drop as the 2023 Elite Prospects Draft Guide had Benson rated fifth overall. Tracking his games in the WHL, Mitchell Brown found Benson had elite playmaking numbers and was very good in transition.
He wasn’t much of a shooter in his final WHL season, though, with 193 shots in 60 games. For reference, Connor Bedard had 360 shots in 57 games that season. Bedard is in a different tier talent-wise, but that Bedard put up over three more shots per game than Benson tells us something about Benson’s shooting penchant (or lack thereof).
Benson's ranking fifth by EP wasn’t abnormally high, either: Scott Wheeler of The Athletic ranked him sixth, while Bob McKenzie of TSN and Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News rated him eighth. One aberration was Corey Pronman of The Athletic, who ranked him 17th overall. He praised his high offensive skill and creativity but cited concerns about his skating and size (he is now listed at 5’10”).
Finally, the model at Hockey Prospecting had Benson as 1 of 6 prospects in his draft with at least a 60% chance of turning into a star:
Benson’s EP profile detailed his game in detail. We are paraphrasing here, but he could manipulate the opposition to sell one play while having something else in mind. That deception created open ice for teammates, which made him a skilled playmaker.
That playmaking was evident as an NHL rookie. His rate of 0.68 primary assists at 5-on-5 was neck-and-neck with Bedard (0.69) and Adam Fantilli (0.68), and compared to other future stars in their age-18 season:
Tracking data from AllThreeZones didn’t have Benson with a high rate of scoring chance assists at 5-on-5 (SCA/60), but he did have a high rate of High-Danger Passes (HDPass/60). That second category includes only passes across the slot or from behind the net, which leads to high-percentage shots. Looking at other players in the league who had an SCA/60 rate between 0-30% above their team average, an HDPass/60 rate 40-60% above their team average, and who had 45-55% of their chance assists be high-danger passes, two names came up:
It is a mixed bag of fantasy utility here, but that he compared well to established NHLers (and one-star producer) is a very good sign.
As mentioned in a February write-up, one thing Benson struggled with as a rookie was his transition game. He didn’t do much of the heavy lifting on zone entries and infrequently carried the puck in. It was something he needed to improve.
Thus far in 2024-25, Benson’s 5-on-5 assist rates have been status quo. His rate of primary assists is down just 6%, and his overall assist rate is down just 7%. That is despite the team’s goal-scoring rate increasing by 5% with him on the ice. In fact, there have been a lot of improvements in his tracking data. Of all of the regular Buffalo forwards over the last two seasons, only he and Tage Thompson have increased their rate of offence created both off the rush and forecheck, as well as scoring chance contributions and high-danger passes when compared to 2023-24:
Now let’s see if any other forward under the age of 30 across the 2021-22/2022-23 seasons, or the 2022-23/2023-24 seasons, had similar increases to Benson. There was one name that came up:
It is interesting to see Kaapo Kakko’s name appear. The reason is that in his draft year, Kakko was lauded for his puck skills, but that did not translate to the NHL level for the New York Rangers. In fact, Kakko’s two teenage seasons produced 0.36 primary assists per 60 minutes, which is 45% lower than Benson’s. Even though Kakko has seen that improve a lot in the 2024-25 season (1.08 primary assists/60), it took him years, and a new team, to get there.
Benson has greatly improved his transition work, too. His overall rate of zone entries per minute has increased from last season (about 20%), and he’s carrying the puck on those zone entries at a very high percentage. In fact, when looking at comparable forwards across the league by similar rates of zone entries and percentage of entries carried in, the names range from solid fantasy contributors to genuine superstars:
Finally, Benson’s 5-on-5 shot attempt rate has also increased. He has added nearly two shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, going from a fourth-line rate in 2023-24 to a high-end third-line rate in 2024-25. If he can make another similar leap next season, he will shoot the puck at a fringe first-line rate.
All told it has been a season of near-across-the-board improvements for Benson. While his production has been stagnant since his rookie year, the only linemate on the current Sabres roster that Benson has skated at least one-third of his ice time with is Peyton Krebs, whose best season saw him post the point rate of a mid-tier third-liner.
We have to remember that Benson is still a teenager playing for a bad team, earning little power-play time and with infrequent or low-production linemates. His trajectory since being drafted is impressive, and if his improvements continue for another year, the Sabres and fantasy managers will have a star on their hands.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
