NCAA Stock Watch: Michael Hage driving the offence for the hottest program in the country
We are well over a month into the new NCAA season, and it has been nothing if not entertaining thus far. From a brand new influx of CHL talent reshaping rosters across the nation, to established stars elevating their games to the elite level, college hockey has authored many storylines already.
While freshman talent has indeed had a massive impact on the scoring charts and in driving team offence, it hasn’t necessarily been the highest profile arrivals who have made the most seamless transitions. 2024 fifth-round selection, Justin Poirier leads freshmen in both scoring and goals – another feather in the hat of the Carolina Hurricanes’ scouting staff, as he emerges as a tenacious, creative force at the University of Maine.
Several highly-touted first-round selections, by contrast, have stumbled a bit out of the gate, still adapting to the pace of college play or learning how to leverage their scoring talents against more structured defences.
So it is with a sophomore that we start this month’s stock watch, as Michael Hage leads the offensive charge for the Michigan Wolverines, who sit atop the NCAA with 29 points through 12 games.
Stock Rising 📈
Michael Hage, C/LW, University of Michigan (Montréal Canadiens)
Hage headed into this past summer with two main goals: build muscle and add a shooting threat to his offensive arsenal. It has not taken long for the Montréal Canadiens prospect to reap those rewards.
He sits tied-sixth in college goals and tied-fifth in points, no longer a one-dimensional set-up man. The six-foot-one forward now sits just a single pound under 200 and is much more difficult to knock off the puck. Crucially, strength has not come at the cost of speed. Hage remains one of the most dynamic and pacey rush creators in the country and has gained an extra beat of explosiveness in his starts and direction changes.
At speed, Hage lures in defenders, deceives with his eyes and hips, skips around outstretched sticks, and lowers his shoulder to cut to the middle of the ice. Power details are emerging that will serve him well at the professional level, especially when paired with a release that has quickened since last season, launching off his stick with pace and precision.
Though holding the mantle as the most dynamic dual-threat offensive creator on – as of writing – the top program in college is no small feat, Hage still has elements to continue improving this season. Only half of his goals and 40% of his production have come at even strength. It’s on the power play that Hage has truly taken over shifts this season, lethal with the extra space.
His stronger base, improved two-way details, and increased middle drive have been felt in his five-on-five efficacy. Hage has taken significant steps in his development over the past nine months, but Habs fans may be disappointed that he’s been moved to the wing to accommodate a line with 2025 Penguins first-rounder Will Horcoff. The good news, however, is that whether on the wing or down the middle, Hage has played with the speed, skill, and quick thinking necessary to fit in seamlessly to Martin St. Louis’ team within two years.
Václav Nestrašil, RW, UMass (Chicago Blackhawks)
Václav Nestrašil burst onto the map as a top 2025 draft-eligible only a third of the way through last season, as he learned to implement a physical edge to his game built on skill around the net-front and a high-motor defensive impact. That rushing tide of momentum was integral in catapulting the Muskegon Lumberjacks to a Clark Cup championship and has not slowed a beat upon his arrival at UMass this season, as he quickly earned first-line minutes and a role on both special teams units.
Not only is the freshman tied for tenth in goals with seven, but he’s the youngest player inside the top 70 goal scorers. It’s not a single elite tool that has enabled Nestrašil’s scoring rate, however, but his adaptability. He’s already picked corners off odd-man rushes, driven across the blue paint to score off a powerful cut to the net front, tipped shots from the point, and showed off his mitts in tight.
The Chicago Blackhawks prospect has seen his style translate seamlessly through his first month of college action. With defensive tenacity, a physical advantage, and an understanding of the various ways to help his team put the puck in the net, it’s clear to see why he has gained the trust of his new coaching staff so quickly. He looks the part of a future NHL do-it-all power winger with middle-six potential.
Nestrašil has, without a doubt, been among the most impactful, trusted, and versatile freshmen in college. He's played as large a part as any other player in getting UMass off to a hot start to the season, as they sit second in Hockey East.
Charlie Cerrato, C, Penn State (Carolina Hurricanes)
Twice over, Charlie Cerrato was passed over at the NHL draft. From a depth checking role with the NTDP in his draft year to playing in the Youngstown Phantoms’ top-six the year after, it wasn’t until a freshman campaign at Penn State with point-per-game scoring that he was able to draw the eyes of the big leagues, earning a top-50 selection this past summer.
He has helmed the program’s top line, and with 18 points through 12 games, Cerrato sits joint-third in NCAA scoring with linemate J.J. Wiebusch.
The Carolina Hurricanes prospect hasn’t gained separation from his peers through superior tools, an elite release, or a heavy frame. He simply outworks his opponents, from shift to shift to shift.
Head of Scouting, Mitch Brown, had this to say in an October 30th game report:
“Relentless. Cerrato is always in the middle of the action with his energetic style. He sprints hard for every loose puck, even when it seems like he doesn't have a chance to win. He had some big plays defensively, including a backcheck where he stretched out with his leg to intercept a pass, and he was routinely above the play, backing off early to defend the middle. Terrific pressure as the F1 on the forecheck.”
Cerrato has all the pieces to be a suffocating bottom-six checking centre in the NHL. He’s even dominated the faceoff circle, winning 58% of his draws (via InStat Hockey). With increased time on the penalty kill to become a specialist in that area, and increased East-West movements in his rushes to be less predictable in possession, he could become a crucial middle-of-the-lineup piece in Raleigh who plays the game precisely like Rod Brind’Amour requires his players to do.
Justin Poirier, RW, University of Maine (Carolina Hurricanes)
Sticking with Carolina’s prospects, Poirier has been a revelation in Maine, putting the team’s offence on his back. Potting tally after tally, he has nine goals in ten games so far, with all but three of them coming at even strength. The Québecois sniper has long been touted as an elite shooter who can get it done on the power play, but his five-on-five productivity and all-around tenacity have long gone underrated… no longer.
Poirier is undersized at five-foot-eight, but he’s rarely outmatched in a battle, aided by a sturdy 185-pound frame. He’s worked leverage impressively for an NCAA freshman, keeps his feet moving, and has a real pesky streak to him. His work down low and along the wall has been more a strength than a weakness at Maine, but his lethal shooting skill and off-puck scoring habits have remained his most electric qualities.
The puck booms off his stick. Blink, and you’ll miss it. He’s got the quickness of release to get shots off in congested spaces, the precision to beat goaltenders cleanly, and the power to score from range. He's truly a challenging sniper to contain. Continuing to shoot 20% likely isn’t sustainable, but the regression to the mean won’t be a huge one, given Poirier’s skill.
The sparkplug’s defensive habits could use further refining, and he likely needs another season in college after this one, but Justin Poirier silences doubters at every turn, at every level. He’s arguably been the most surprisingly dominant freshman in college to start the year, and has almost every quality needed to surmount an undersized frame as a potential second-line sniper with some sandpaper.
Stock Steady ↔️
James Hagens, C, Boston College (Boston Bruins)
James Hagens has been handed the car keys to drive Boston College’s offence this season with the graduations of Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault to the professional ranks. Despite his elite skill, he is still trying to leverage his tools to take over games reliably.
Averaging nearly 21 minutes a night, Hagens is getting big matchup minutes with hefty power play deployment. In the past few weeks, he's earned a new role on the penalty kill, where his speed can punish heavy puck touches in a flash. Still, on most nights, his performances were closer to good than they were to great. He connects plays between his wingers well, is dynamic when attacking off the rush, and hustles to return to his defensive assignment on the backcheck, but dominant shifts have remained few and far between.
As Minnesota Regional Scout Whittaker Heart explains in an October 10th game report:
“James Hagens still looks very similar to the player we saw last year at Boston College. The pace of play is very high, generating speed through the middle of the ice and catching pucks between checks of the opposing trap. His speed is effective at boosting his on-puck pace of play, but also got repurposed in this game to win loose puck races and create possessions[...] It's a good start to the year for Hagens, but the production and dominance will have to come up a notch still.”
Stock Falling 📉
Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (2026 NHL Draft)
Take this “faller” label with an asterisk. Gavin McKenna has been the subject of heaps upon heaps of hype and excitement, reaching back to his 15-year-old WHL season, where he scored 18 points in 16 games. Since then, achievements like a 20-point U18 World Championship performance and a gold medal finish at 16, and last season’s gaudy point tallies, including over two points per game in the WHL regular season and 38 points in 16 playoff games, cemented his name as the “next big thing” out of Canadian hockey.
With this kind of resume and a massively competitive race among college programs this summer to secure his commitment, the pressure to match the superstar production of recent freshman stars like Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli was always going to be enormous.
Despite scoring 14 points through 12 games this season, tied for 16th in the country, McKenna’s defensive mishaps, physical immaturity, and game-to-game inconsistencies have led to chatter surrounding the strength of his claim on the first-overall slot in next June’s draft. He hasn’t expanded his game relative to last season just yet, and other prospects in a deep 2026 class are closing in on him.
Improving his defensive engagement, understanding of defensive-zone assignments, and on-puck scanning habits will be crucial in overcoming some early-season stumbles. And yet, it cannot be understated just how dynamic McKenna’s playmaking has been so far in his college career.
Our Head of Scouting Mitchell Brown wrote an entire piece on the up-and-down beginnings of McKenna’s NCAA beginnings, and outlines how special – and unlucky – he has been in translating ruthless playmaking efficiency to goals, particularly at even strength.
“His expected primary assists at 5-on-5, a metric that measures the likelihood of a player’s shot assists becoming a goal based on location, type, quality, etc., is 2.5 per 60, the same rate as his last season in the WHL. That’s not just a higher rate than Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli’s only NCAA seasons – it’s higher than both combined. In fact, it’s higher than every NCAA season I’ve ever tracked," wrote Brown in the article.
McKenna is a special talent, but he’ll be looking over his shoulder from this point onward until June, since he’s far from the only one vying for first overall.
