NCAA Signing Season: What we're hearing on top NHL prospects and their future plans

When a team selects a player destined for the NCAA, it understands that it will retain the player's rights for four years following the draft. Should the player choose to complete all four years of college, they can become a free agent on August 15 of their final year, allowing them to select their next destination with no compensation for the drafting organisation.

For instance, a first-time-eligible player selected out of the USNTDP at the 2022 NHL Draft will have the option to become a free agent on August 15, 2026, if they so choose.

This is why we see teams make such a concerted effort to bring their picks out after a second or third season rather than risk losing them for nothing. But that threat also becomes the only leverage a player has in negotiating adequate terms.

There are two ways to bring a player out of school:

You sign them to their three-year Entry-Level Contract (ELC) and instantly burn a year off that deal. Now the player is one year closer to signing a second, non-limited contract. A year closer to restricted free agency. A year closer to unrestricted free agency.

You sign the player to an Amateur Try-Out (ATO) contract and send them to your American Hockey League affiliate. The player plays the stretch in professional hockey and then signs their ELC to begin the following year.

Teams must carefully assess the implications of integrating a college player into NHL games immediately, as this action consumes a year of their contract. They also need to consider performance bonus structures and their salary cap situations, all of which can lead to complex negotiations.

But now for the specific situations.

Isaac Howard and Tampa Bay in a Staring Contest

Isaac Howard has completed three seasons in college hockey, starting with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and spending the last two at Michigan State. This past season, he scored 26 goals, ranking third nationally, and accumulated 52 points, placing him fifth in the country. His impressive performance earned him a finalist position for the Hobey Baker Award, the highest honor in college hockey, which annually recognizes the top NCAA Division I men's ice hockey player based on both skill and character.

After these three seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning are keen to avoid their 2022 first-round pick returning for a fourth NCAA campaign, which could lead to him testing unrestricted free agency. 

Furthermore, Howard is eager to transition from college to professional hockey. The primary challenge, however, is the team's lack of salary cap space.

Currently, both parties find themselves at a bit of an impasse. The most straightforward solution for the Lightning would be to sign Howard to an ATO, allowing him to join Syracuse of the AHL for the remainder of the season. He could then sign his ELC in the summer, set to commence in the 2025-26 season. However, this approach would not allow for a year to be counted against his contract, which would be advantageous for the player.

Nonetheless, there are indications that a compromise is likely to be reached. Howard could sign the ATO and play in Syracuse. Once the NHL regular season concludes, he could sign his ELC and join the Lightning for the playoffs. Since there are no salary cap limitations during the playoffs, this would alleviate Tampa Bay's concerns. Although he would not receive a salary during the postseason, he would still benefit from a year being counted against his contract and would receive his signing bonus.

Additionally, the club could attempt some other cap gymnastics to sign him earlier or wait until just before the final game of the season, when they should have enough space accrued to get him into a game.

This situation remains intriguing, and I am optimistic that a resolution will be achieved in one form or another.

Jacob Fowler and the Canadiens

Jacob Fowler has played two seasons with Boston College. Those two years have been extremely productive for the 20-year-old stopper. In total, he posted a 57-13-3 record with a 0.932 save percentage and 10 shutouts. He is a finalist for the Mike Richter award given to the top netminder in college hockey.

Recently, he has observed his Boston College teammates, Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault, sign their entry-level contracts and join their respective NHL teams. However, it is not guaranteed that Fowler will join them in departing school this year.

Trey Augustine, another 2023 draft pick and a member of the 2024 NCAA All-Rookie Team, has decided to return to Michigan State for a third season, despite strong interest from the Detroit Red Wings for him to turn professional.

It now appears extremely likely that Fowler will sign an ATO when Montreal’s AHL affiliate, Laval, returns from their western road trip in a little over a week. Expect Fowler to see game action and then sign his ELC in the summer to commence at the beginning of the 2025-26 campaign. 

The club will look for him to battle his way into at least a time share at the AHL level next season. 

Tom Willander and the Canucks

Tom Willander’s scenario differs from others as the Vancouver Canucks top defensive prospect is still playing. He and his teammates at Boston University are preparing for another appearance in the Frozen Four, facing Penn State on April 10th, with the National Championship scheduled for April 12th.

Following the commencement of the Frozen Four, the Canucks have three remaining games on their calendar: April 12, 14, and 16. Not a lot of time to get him signed and into the lineup.

Sources indicate that contract negotiations have been back and forth. The Canucks are eager for Willander to sign an amateur tryout and join Abbotsford in the AHL before finalising his entry-level contract for the 2025-26 season during the summer. While Willander's representatives appear open to this arrangement, maximising the Schedule-A bonuses is integral for their side, as they believe they are warranted for the former 11th overall pick.

Ultimately, it seems both parties are inclined to reach an agreement. However, Willander previously declined a standard rookie contract with Rögle of the SHL in 2023— instead charting a pioneer-like path from the Swedish junior league to the NCAA—a choice that benefited him but was less favourable for Rögle. Furthermore, education holds significant importance for him and his family, making a return to school for his junior year a possibility, though it remains unlikely.

Sabres Keen to Sign Jake Richard

Jake Richard has taken the winding road. 

Drafted in the sixth round back in 2022, the 6-foot-1 winger returned to the USHL for his draft-plus-one season before joining the University of Connecticut, where he has played the past two years.

This past season, the 20-year-old broke out. His 43 points in 34 games represented nearly a 250 per cent increase from his freshman total of 18 in 36. And because of that extra year in the USHL, he has the option to return to UConn for a third season and test free agency in August 2026 if he chooses.

Sources indicate that the Sabres are making a strong effort to sign the Florida native. However, it seems Richard has not yet decided on his future. With numerous young forwards in the Sabres’ organisation, spending another season at UConn could provide him with a wider array of options for launching his professional career.

Charlie Stramel Returning to MSU

Charlie Stramel is a unique case because he was drafted 21st overall in 2023 after already playing in the NCAA. So instead of the Minnesota Wild owning his rights for four years, they own his rights for the duration of his college career – in this case, three years. 

Despite this, Elite Prospects has learned that Stramel will return to Michigan State for a senior season in 2025-26. 

Although this opens up the potential for him to explore unrestricted free agency next summer, it appears the Wild are confident they will be able to sign the player at the end of his 2025-26 college campaign and bring him into the NHL fold.

Zeev Buium is Coming

This won’t come as much of a surprise, but sources indicate that Zeev Buium will sign his entry-level contract with the Minnesota Wild after his season with Denver ends. The only question is when we see him in the NHL lineup.

Similar to Willander, Buium and his teammates from the University of Denver are competing in the Frozen Four, aiming to defend their title from 2024. They are scheduled to face Western Michigan on April 10th, with the opportunity to vie for the championship on April 12th. Minnesota has games on April 11th, 12th, and 15th.

It is anticipated that Buium will participate in at least one of these matches for the Wild.

At just 19 years old, the defenseman possesses the potential to make an immediate impact on the team. Pursuing his second consecutive 50-point season, he is a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award for the second year in a row, has earned two World Junior gold medals, a National Championship, and demonstrates maturity beyond his age.