What We Learned: Does a Nazem Kadri trade even make sense?
The Calgary Flames almost made the playoffs last season.
They finished with 96 points, tied for eighth in the West but with fewer wins than the St. Louis Blues, and so they missed out on the opportunity to get absolutely rocked by the Winnipeg Jets in the opening round. But for a team that spent the last few years rebuilding, the season seemed like an encouraging sign. They were supposed to be quite bad, and while not-making the playoffs in a league where half the teams do so is hardly a positive, 96 points was a hell of a lot more than anyone projected. Did they punch well above their weight class to get to 96? Of course. They were actually a minus-16 for the season in terms of goal difference, and weren't really a PDO team because they had the second-worst all-situations shooting percentage in the league, but you could maybe kinda-sorta talk yourself into this kind of success, such as it was, being sustainable.
That's because a lot of their wins came as a direct result of rookie goalie Dustin Wolf standing on his head. If you believe he's a perennial .910 goalie, that'll take you pretty far, especially if you think their true shooting talent is better than "31st in the league." But the jury's out on that one because this roster is just not very good. Vagaries of the sport's random nature and a volatile division aside, no one is mistaking these Calgary Flames for Stanley Cup contenders, or probably even more than mere cannon fodder if they did somehow luck their way into the playoffs.
Which is probably why half the league is being connected to a Nazem Kadri trade this summer. Type the team name into Google News on a Sunday morning in late July and witness nearly half of the hits return some version of "here's a list of teams Kadri could go to." Another is full of quotes from the player himself calling all these rumours "bizarre" and saying he and his family love it in Calgary.
So what's driving the interest? The fact that Kadri just scored a career-high 34 goals, the fact that the pickings for potential No. 2 centres were bare on July 1 and barer still on July 28, the fact that the Flames are still not very good, the fact that so many teams have the cap space to take on Kadri at full freight, and the fact that some teams (mostly the Toronto Maple Leafs) are desperate to stay competitive in hotly contested divisional races. Among others.
There's also the expectation that the Flames are going to make themselves worse this summer anyway, because they likely have to trade disquieted defender Rasmus Andersson because they were, at last check, miles apart on a contract extension. Now, Andersson has a partial no-trade clause but it's limited to just six teams, so his one-way ticket out of town feels all but booked; it just depends what the market looks like for a good but not great defenseman who may only want to sign a big extension with a select number of teams. It's not quite the same deal with Kadri, who fully controls his destination (until his no-move clause expires next summer) and is signed for four more seasons at a fairly affordable $7-million AAV.
But Kadri is also turning 35 before the regular season begins, and if the Flames aren't going anywhere special with him, it certainly makes sense for them to consider trading him, because if there are motivated buyers, the possibility of the rare "hockey trade" is at least nominally on the table. One of the teams rumored to be in the market for Kadri is the St. Louis Blues, and while I absolutely don't get the reported motivation to trade Jordan Kyrou (who also has trade protection), the Flames would be wise to make that kind of trade 1-for-1. But also: Calgary might just want to trade Kadri for futures because their rebuild is not close to being done; they have a couple of really strong prospects but not even enough to be the best team in their own province a couple years from now. A few more first-round picks beyond their own (which you'd really hope would be in the Nos. 4-10 range) would help.
It all comes down to how GM Craig Conroy sees his team. Organizationally, they haven't really been allowed to enter a true rebuild in the cap era, though of course they have often been bad enough to either just miss or just make the playoffs… and occasionally good enough to win the Pacific Division. The last few years, even with a couple playoff qualifications mixed in, the latter felt like a fluke, and the former the true baseline for how good the team has been, is, and will be. Not every organization is able to enter a tear-it-down rebuild (often for financial reasons) and of course there's no guarantee that going down such a path will lead to a more competitive team. Ask the Buffalo Sabres or the Columbus Blue Jackets. And I would suggest that trading Kadri and Andersson in the space of a few months or so at most would be close to the team admitting the need for a more holistic effort to reshape the roster. There are still a few too many players on the back nine of their careers there, and certainly not enough difference makers to convince you this is a team doing anything but spinning its tires. But that is, to an extent, how management/ownership seems to want it if the alternative is blowing it up. And if Kadri and Andersson are on the block, Mackenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau, Blake Coleman, and everyone else over the age of 28 or so with any real value should be as well. And that probably isn't going to happen, even if it's just the team idly dropping lines in the water to see if the fish are biting.
But until a Kadri trade happens — and I really don't think it will unless a team he actively wants to play for comes in with a blow-away offer, of which there is probably a single-digit percent chance — expect the Flames' local media to keep pointing out that the team's point total from last season was the most ever amassed by a team that failed to make the playoffs. The difference between eighth and ninth may be slim, but what that difference tells you about where your team is really at is enormous.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: I don't know. How did being Rangers East work out for the Rangers last year?
Boston Bruins: Under-reported followup.
Buffalo Sabres: Where has this assertion been proven?
Calgary Flames: Hey, why not?
Carolina Hurricanes: Easy to forget some of these. The reason why is pretty obvious but I'll let you figure that out.
Chicago: Interesting take from the franchise player on why he seemingly got worse at skating last season.
Colorado Avalanche: Getting mad about a signing from 2009 is a pretty good illustration of just how much it's July 28 right now.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Will this roster make the playoffs next year? Outlook not so good.
Dallas Stars: Yeah this checks out.
Detroit Red Wings: Wow, the perfect chance, you say?
Edmonton Oilers: There's one name that's notably absent from this list (due to fear).
Florida Panthers: Feel like this didn't get a ton of attention last week, and boy would it help sort out some of that "the Panthers are over the cap" thing.
Los Angeles Kings: If you say so.
Minnesota Wild: Sure, why not?
Montreal Canadiens: I will never expect it. You can't make me.
Nashville Predators: Yeah but not for good reasons.
New Jersey Devils: Buddy, ya don't wanna know.
New York Islanders: I'd say that's the idea, yes.
New York Rangers: Wow, it's PTO season already? Where does the time go?
Ottawa Senators: I'm just gonna keep hoping Lucy will still be holding the football by then…
Philadelphia Flyers: What's the difference?
Pittsburgh Penguins: I know that already.
San Jose Sharks: Not how I would have ordered the ranking but this is the right three for sure.
Seattle Kraken: Might wanna hold off on that exclamation point, bud.
St. Louis Blues: I would love to see an NHLer shoot the puck and have it drop off the table.
Tampa Bay Lightning: A totally unforeseeable outcome. Totally.
Toronto Maple Leafs: This rocks.
Utah Mammoth: "It would really help the team."
Vancouver Canucks: I never want to take it at face value that chronically injured guys are totally healthy and ready to go, but you always have to root for it.
Vegas Golden Knights: The conclusion here is simply incorrect.
Washington Capitals: Could be wrong, but I think the ultimate goal now is to reach four digits. Only 103 away…
Winnipeg Jets: Man this can't be it, can it?
Gold Star Award
All these teams should be happy they're able to avoid arbitration because they have so much cap space. Arbitration is nasty!
Minus of the Weekend
…but I do love the drama that can arise from an arb hearing, so it's a real double-edged sword.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "Checkmate17" has some thoughts:
MTL : Matheson (50%) could take their 2nd line and is a lot better then Maatta + Engstrom (grade B+ LHD) + Dobes (Grade A goalie)
for
Utah : Tij Iginla