What We Learned: The Edmonton Oilers vs The Distraction
I have compiled for you a series of increasingly worrying quotes from Connor McDavid about his contract status:
First, from June: "If I feel that there’s a good window to win here over and over again, then signing is no problem."
That's right around the end of the Stanley Cup Final, which Edmonton lost in six games as part of a series that never really felt as close as the previous year's matchup featuring the same two teams. The "if" there is obviously the concerning part if you're the Oilers, but we'll circle back to that.
Next, late August: "I want the group to be as focused and dialed-in and ready to roll come Day 1 as possible. We don’t need any distractions."
This is from the Hockey Canada Olympic orientation camp and was in response to the very first question asked of anyone — he joked that he didn't even get an easy about his first career Olympic participation to warm up — but what you'll notice is that he's immediately putting the onus on his teammates to drown out the noise. The "we" in, "We don't need any distractions," feels pointed, as though he doesn't see why this should be a problem for anyone else.
Then, Saturday: "If guys can't play hockey because people are talking outside the room, then you're probably in the wrong job."
Another quote about how if his teammates perform poorly because of this, that's a "them" problem. Which he's right about, but the idea that a looming extension doesn't affect on-ice play is a little much. They have the entire "in a contract year" concept to describe why guys who are staring down unrestricted free agency will often post career-best numbers in some categories, and if you're as involved in your team's success as McDavid is, has a huge ripple effect on a lot of other players. He's right, though, that if teammates are "gripping their sticks tighter" because McDavid hasn't signed, they're doing all involved a disservice.
Also from Saturday: "All options are on the table and that would mean length of term, short term, long term, no term."
Hmm. "No term." That would have me absolutely terrified if I'm the Oilers' coach, general manager, or just a guy who maybe goes to one or two games a year. Obviously, this is all part of the negotiation. He is "negotiating through the media" which is a tactic people don't like when it suits them not to like it but is, a) absolutely his right, and b) something that he's doing because the local and national media understandably won't stop asking about it.
That brings us back to the idea of "distraction." McDavid can't control what the media asks of him or his teammates or Oilers management, but he does have to know that it's going to be Item Nos. 1-50 on the agenda, right before they get around to how the much-maligned goaltending tandem is doing at that particular moment. Now, I'm pretty sure that, like, newly re-signed Evan Bouchard or Edmonton's longest-tenured player, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, shouldn't have to answer questions about this kind of thing every single day, because what would they even say? But every time they or any of their teammates makes the kind of mistake that leads to a goal, it's going to be the TV people's job to immediately cut McDavid scowling on the bench.
When McDavid said, back in June, that "if" he deemed this team capable of winning long-term, it would be "no problem" for him to re-sign. Which, given his current contract status, implies he is not convinced of this fact today. That's after his team made two straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, a feat achieved by just five other teams in the cap era (Tampa and Florida did it back-to-back-to-back, Pittsburgh did it on two separate occasions, and Detroit did it once). The only difference? Edmonton is the only team to not get a Cup out of their run.
Put another way, it's extremely difficult to have the kind of success the Oilers had over the last two seasons — and would we even be having this conversation if they'd lost in Game 6 in 2024 and then Game 7 this past June? — and the idea that they couldn't just go do it again with this group is a bit silly. The path to another Cup Final isn't laid out for them in the Western Conference as it would be in the East, but still. Few teams have better championship odds to start the year than the Oilers. And yet McDavid remains in some way unconvinced.
Perhaps that's because the goaltending is unchanged from last year. Or that there's still a bit too much money being dumped into a not-great defensive corps. Or that the forward depth still probably isn't where you'd like it to be. Or also that the roster is one of the oldest in the NHL (currently ninth at 29.2 years old; only two teams are north of 30 at the moment).
But with McDavid and Draisaitl still more or less in their primes, all things remain possible, and maybe he just wants, like, some of that weight lifted off their shoulders.
One has to imagine that the McDavid camp has made it in some way clear to the team what kind of roster moves would convince him to stay. Get a goalie that doesn't randomly become unplayable for three weeks every once in a while? Trade Darnell Nurse and use the cap savings to get an actual good defenseman? Who knows. These are just the obvious issues with the roster.
You have to imagine if McDavid gave such a directive, GM Stan Bowman would have those changes made already. And unless he's playing coy, going, "Ohhh, I don't knowwwww," any time the "What would convince you?" question comes up, there's no real explanation for the foot-dragging. Because otherwise? The Oilers have done basically all they can to make this a McDavid-friendly organization. The team president is his former agent, the head coach is his junior coach. No team in the cap era has done more to ingratiate themselves to their top player, in a way that feels maybe even a little too obsequious.
And what if McDavid was explicit about exactly what he thinks is wrong with the team, Bowman did exactly what McDavid asked for, and they still didn't win a Stanley Cup in June?
All of which is to say McDavid has made it exceptionally clear that it's "Cup or Bust" for the Oilers. The best player on earth, a guy who was a three-time MVP by the time he turned 27, all but saying aloud his two-time consecutive Cup Finalist team isn't good enough to keep him in the only pro hockey home he's ever known is unprecedented. Has there ever been a more significant high-wire act in league history?
Bowman, who hasn't exactly put in the best work of his career since arriving in Edmonton, doesn't have many obvious levers to pull in an effort to comply. And if McDavid leaves under his watch, he'll be involuntarily following soon after. So what this all really boils down to is whether an overrated GM has any plan at all besides sliding McDavid a pen and a contract with the AAV and term left blank every few weeks for the rest of the season.
The pressure isn't on McDavid, his teammates, or his coach. It is entirely on a GM whose track record is inheriting a winning team and slowly getting worse results with it over time. And at least in Chicago, he had most of his best players under team control for years before he had to extend them.
The Oilers are in uncharted territory here. The question isn't what it will take to convince McDavid to re-sign. It's whether Bowman is the best man to convince him.
The good news is that this isn't a "distraction," it's just what it takes to be a competent GM in a league where star players almost never leave the teams that drafted them. But the bad news if he doesn't have a handle on this one task, it will be the biggest failure in league history.
No pressure. It's just that if you can't be a competent GM because people are talking outside the room, then you're probably in the wrong job.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Yeah I bet.
Boston Bruins: They're acting like they want to be competitive but I wonder if, internally, they think they actually can be.
Buffalo Sabres: Nope!
Calgary Flames: Much more easily said than done, I'm afraid.
Carolina Hurricanes: At this rate, it's possible you're gonna go to a Hurricanes preseason game and there's gonna be more guys on PTOs than guys on the Hurricanes.
Chicago: Slow down there chief.
Colorado Avalanche: Ol' No. 8 is gonna get to do the McDavid thing, if he wants to.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Kinda surprising he didn't lead off with, "Yeah, my bad."
Dallas Stars: Why would you expect anything? What do you care?
Detroit Red Wings: Yeah, a lot of things could happen. For sure.
Edmonton Oilers: Definitely. Yes. Absolutely.
Florida Panthers: Very good to see.
Los Angeles Kings: Come on with this first one, man.
Minnesota Wild: Sounds right to me. For a few months, anyway. And by the way, notice how low-stress this one seems to be? A fun contrast! For some of us.
Montreal Canadiens: No.
Nashville Predators: This is the make-or-break situation for you? Alright.
New Jersey Devils: They're doing the thing where they draw a little X through every day of a calendar.
New York Islanders: The quote in here about why they traded Noah Dobson is interesting. You almost never see GMs just say that.
New York Rangers: Very cool. Great job.
Ottawa Senators: This is their biggest win of the offseason and it's not close.
Philadelphia Flyers: Yeah, Starland Vocal Band.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Sick of hearing about all this.
San Jose Sharks: "May" is really load-bearing here.
Seattle Kraken: The added bonus of a glow-in-the-dark jersey is that you can play with the lights off, creating a better viewing experience for local fans who no longer have to watch the product.
St. Louis Blues: If you think Milan Lucic could make the team this year, why would you even bother tuning in?
Tampa Bay Lightning: Oh now they can hire NHL players to be in the front office, too? This tax thing is out of control.
Toronto Maple Leafs: You may not agree with much of what the Leafs do or say, but it's inarguable that "health is good." Unless you're talking about the band.
Utah Mammoth: Sure, it's always in the last place you look.
Vancouver Canucks: If it was me, I wouldn't personally be drawing attention to this fact.
Vegas Golden Knights: Nope. Thanks for checking though.
Washington Capitals: Really looking forward to his season here.
Winnipeg Jets: Oh, I guess that's good.
Gold Star Award
RIP Ken Dryden, one of those players who, every time you heard a real fact about his career — went undefeated one season in college, won the Conn Smythe before he won the Calder, his record has almost five times as many wins as losses, etc. etc. etc. — you were like, "Are we sure that's not about Sidd Finch?"
Minus of the Weekend
I hate that it's another whole week until training camp. They should do it now. No problem from me.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "Checkmate17" might want to try getting to check first:
MTL : Ghule
for
LA : Byfield