Elite Prospects Olympic Stock Watch Part 3: USA Hockey orientation camp
Like Hockey Canada a few weeks ago, USA Hockey recently announced the roster of 44 NHL players it would invite to its Olympic orientation camp on Aug. 26 and 27.
While there will be no on-ice portion of the camp, as it's more of a get-to-know-you event, this is where some difficult decisions will at least start to take shape.
We've already talked about some players having to made their case to go to Italy for these Olympics back at the Four Nations, and we recently discussed the way the Canadian roster is already taking shape. So let's turn our attention now to the Four Nations runners up, and how they can go about building a team that's capable of finally closing the deal.
It won't be easy. As you'll see, we're in agreement that way more of this team is basically decided than even its Canadian counterpart, which is loaded with former MVPs and multi-multi-multi-time All-Stars. And unlike Canada, which left a few eyebrow-raising names at home, the USA Hockey decision-makers seem a little more willing to open themselves up to second guesses.
So let's go through the list, break down who's a lock, who would have to play their way off the roster, and who needs a red-hot start in 2025-26 to make their case.
This is Part 3 of the Elite Prospects Olympic Stock Watch:
Locks
First things first, let's just say that we already know six members of Team USA because of the NHL's "First Six" announcement a few months back. On the blue line, they're guaranteed to bring Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy, and up front, it's Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and the Brothers Tkachuk, Matthew and Brady.
We're largely in agreement on most of the rest of the opening-night lineup, as well. That is, barring injury, it's hard to conceive of a start so bad any of these guys are left at home for two weeks in February. In all, we have a whopping 15 players as "locks" right now.
Two defensemen we think are all but guaranteed to make the team are Zach Werenski, coming off a borderline Norris-worthy season, and shutdown master Jaccob Slavin, who at Four Nations stood out as much as a guy who doesn't score a lot possibly could. So that's four of seven or eight defensive roster spots taken already.
Up front, we're in agreement on Matt Boldy, Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, Jack Hughes, and JT Miller all making it pretty much sight unseen. These are great, skilled players who each provide some unique dimension and goalscoring punch that, as we saw at Four Nations, the US desperately lacked at critical moments. All those guys were also on the Four Nations team, which will probably be a big consideration in the evaluation process; we just saw them all in a kinda-sorta best-on-best tournament.
And then, in goal, we think that despite how the playoffs went, the reigning league MVP Connor Hellebuyck and divisional rival Jake Oettinger are shoo-ins for Milano Cortina.
Altogether, that gives us a roster with 2 of 3 goalie spots taken, as well as 4 of 7 (or 8) on defense, and 9 of 13 (or 14) at forward.
There were, however, some debates on the blue line:
Debate No. 1: Adam Fox
RL: Personally, I think Fox is as clear of a lock as anyone else, especially considering how rough of a season McAvoy had even before his scary health situation during the Four Nations (he suffered a shoulder injury and, later, a staph infection). No, Fox absolutely didn't look his best last season on a bad Rangers team, and looked overwhelmed at Four Nations. But this is a guy who has consistently been one of the six or eight best defensemen in the league for basically his entire NHL career, so I'm willing to write it off as a blip — and even then, he was quite good but perhaps just not "at his best." Mostly because I don't think you can make a really strong argument that there's anyone who should jump the line ahead of him. At worst, he's "probable" for me, but maybe at that point we're splitting hairs.
CR: While I agree that Fox ends up being there, I think his play over the last 12 months has made it at least a question. With Hughes and Werenski clearly ahead of him on the offensive depth chart, and Slavin and Pesce likely ahead defensively, Fox has a strange role to fill. Sanderson feels like a lock. USA has big plans for Brock Faber. If Fox does end up in Italy, I have a feeling his role will be limited.
Debate No. 2: Brock Faber
CR: I’ll get this out of the way early: I’ve been a Brock Faber fan for way too long. His skating ability is so supreme and allows him to do so much all over the sheet. But let’s be honest, he wasn’t great last season. He was very good with the American sweater on, though, so that might just be enough to get him a locked up spot. But if he stumbles again out of the gate in the regular season, I could see the management team begin to wonder what version of him they’d be bringing overseas.
RL: I get why there's some reluctance here but I think he had such a strong Four Nations that they wouldn't leave him at home under any circumstance. While he didn't score a ton (mostly because he was not put in a position to do so), he led the team in plus-minus playing next to Slavin and averaged north of 23 minutes a night. I think the people putting together the roster will mostly see the magic in that partnership and therefore no reason to change course.
Probables
So depending on how you feel about Fox and Faber, we've already got a good portion of the roster locked up. Beyond the 15-17 guys the USA Hockey braintrust is already carving into stone, we think there are two more defensemen who would kinda have to play their way off the team as things stand today: Noah Hanifin and Jake Sanderson. Neither had the great Four Nations in third-pair roles, and in fact Sanderson only played in two of the games, drawing in after McAvoy couldn't go. But their strong regular-season play with Vegas and Ottawa, respectively, probably get them roster spots.
We also agree that another probable is Dylan Larkin, as well as our first entrant who was snubbed from Four Nations: Tage Thompson. Talk about missing goalscoring in a critical moment, and especially when deferring to some guys who packed very little punch at either end of the ice, makes his omission a mistake the US won't make twice.
Finally, we believe Jeremy Swayman has the inside track for the third goalie slot. Yes, he was bad for Boston last year and didn't see the ice for a single second at Four Nations, but they brought him for a reason. Plus, his performance at the World Championships (7-0-2 with a .921 save percentage) and his years-long NHL track record suggests he should bounce back.
If we're accounting for all the players mentioned so far, that means we're basically full up on defense, or close to it, absolutely packed in goal, and have room for just three or four more forwards.
There's only one real debate in this group:
Debate No. 3: Clayton Keller
RL: I can kinda see it going either way with Keller only because the US is really loaded on the wings. He had 90 points last year so maybe there's no debate at all, but I don't see him as a defensive stalwart and I have a bit of trouble seeing him play the left wing ahead of Connor, Brady Tkachuk or Guentzel. Even if you play him on his off wing, there's another Tkachuk brother and Thompson, at the very least. And at that point, do they want to bring more of a shutdown guy instead? I'm happy to be wrong about this because Keller is awesome, but I can see where they kinda talk themselves out of it, like they did with Thompson at Four Nations. Frankly, it feels like the wings are getting kinda full for the US, and it's center where they could struggle, depending on how they use certain players. Keller can play there, but he mostly doesn't for Utah. Why would USA be any different? He'd be a lock for me, but I wonder…
CR: I wish I had the stones to argue that Keller should be a lock, but I’m not quite at that point yet. Still, this is a player that should be firmly placed on the Probable list. Only two American forwards have more points than him over the last two seasons: Auston Matthews and J.T. Miller. He’s in the prime of his career as an elite offensive contributor. He can beat you with the shot or the pass. He’s an absolute weapon on the power play, and he’s been a willing combatant at the World Championships multiple times. He’s paid his dues and is ready for the big time. And it won’t surprise me one bit to see him clicking at a triple-digit pace by the time this roster is officially announced.
FRINGE
If we're already just fishing for a few forwards and maybe some guys who can play their way onto the team at other positions, let's first say that, at worst, Joey Daccord has to go in this group. Another bad start to the season for Swayman may not feel like likely, but it does feel possible. And while there are some notable snubs from the US in the crease, the fact that they invited four goalies while Canada only invited three (also contentious, to be fair) tells you how they view the national depth chart. Daccord was also Swayman's backup at the World Championships, where he went .919 in three appearances.
We also think Seth Jones, Jackson LaCombe, Brett Pesce, and Neal Pionk could have good enough starts that if someone else stumbles, one of them could step into a depth role. Not the most likely outcome, but injuries can pile up — ask Quinn Hughes about that just last February — so it's easy to see where one of these guys makes a case.
Up front, we see Cole Caufield, Logan Cooley, Jason Robertson, and Alex Tuch as being in the same boat. A great start to the season is very much in the cards for all of them, and if it happens, they're all at least in the conversation come December. That may also be true of Patrick Kane, but he played his way off the Four Nations roster last season and will be a year older. And as mentioned, the wings are loaded for the US, so even if a roster spot or two opens up there, the reality that this could just be a courtesy invite; in Detroit, he isn't even the most impactful American winger on his own line. But we'll get to that in the "subs" section.
We did have two guys we wanted to single out in this group:
Debate No. 4: Luke Hughes
RL: I'm on the record as not being the biggest believer that Hughes is ready to be The Guy for his NHL team, let alone his country. But between the expectation that he's about to get an AAV that starts with an "8," the fact that he even got an invite, and the fact that two of his brothers are all but guaranteed to make the team, I can kinda squint and envision him being a "vibes" inclusion. Wouldn't be my pick, but that's how I see it.
CR: This one is too rich for me. I get why they invited him to camp, because he should have a big future with the national team. But that time is not now. He’s about the sixth-best offensive defenseman at camp. I’d venture to say he’s closer to the "Why is he invited?" list than the fringe group.
Debate No. 5: Matthew Knies
CR: USA isn’t light on beef, especially up front. But the prospect of blending the Tkachuk brothers and Knies throughout the forward lines is a prospect that should excite the executives calling the shots. The key will be a red hot start out of the gates while showcasing his versatility as a higher-end scorer, a physical specimen, and net-plus defensive asset. He has a chance to play himself into the conversation for the final couple of roster spots.
RL: At worst I can see Knies kinda being in the mix right now (hence his invitation) but, yeah, having to play his way onto the team. With Mitch Marner gone from Toronto, Knies should get plenty of opportunity to be more of a centerpiece offensively. If so, it's easy to see him get an invite. If he's not hot in the first two months of the season, that's gonna be a tough sell. Especially because it will feel like he was given a chance and fumbled it.
PROBABLY NOT
We were pretty much in agreement about the guys that would need something of a miracle to make the team.
On the blue line, it's Alex Vlasic and Brady Skjei, two guys passing in opposite directions on the aging curve. I don't really see the argument for inviting either of them, except that Vlasic will at least be able to play his way onto the 2030 Olympic team (real fact: They're gonna play at an soccer stadium being converted into two hockey rinks in France! Good luck!). Coming off the season he had, Skjei's inclusion on this orientation camp roster is, as he found almost every forward he covered to be, a little hard to defend.
Up front, we found Conor Garland, Chris Kreider, Frank Nazar, Brock Nelson, Shane Pinto, Bryan Rust, and Vincent Trocheck to be questionable at best to make the Olympic roster.
That said, most of these guys who didn't make last year's Four Nations roster — Kreider, Nelson, and Trocheck all did, of course — many followed through on the USA Hockey talking point coming out of that tournament, and participated in the World Championships, where the US won gold. Nazar, Garland, and Pinto were all at least a point a game in that tournament (along with Cooley and Keller), so their inclusion at orientation camp makes some sense.
STILL IN THE MIX
Finally, let's talk snubs. Unlike Canada, USA Hockey gave us plenty to talk about. Many, you can kinda-sorta justify.
On the blue line, it's straightforward: John Carlson? Too old. Lane Hutson? Maybe too young and almost certainly redundant if you can't load him up with power-play time (and we both still would have brought him at least to the orientation camp.) Cam Fowler? Maybe you'd like to see more of him on his new team.
It's the forwards and goalies that really pack a lot of, "Huh, really?" omissions.
In goal, it's a little surprising to see Dustin Wolf not get some consideration considering the rookie year he just had — he finished second in Calder voting and eighth for the Vezina — but there are only three goalie spots and they're almost certainly all spoken for. So fair enough.
Up front, you can make arguments that a guy like Nick Schmaltz and Troy Terry, who are 19th and 22nd, respectively, in points by Americans over the last four seasons). Terry actually has some Olympic experience, from back in 2018, when he put up 0-5—5 in five games as an NCAA player.
Maybe Anders Lee. Lee has played in three World Championships, but none since 2018.
Brock Boeser is only a season removed from scoring 40 for the Canucks, but he's never represented the US in a men's tournament, just one World Juniors back in 2016.
You could possibly even argue for Frank Vatrano (World Championships in 2016 and 2018).
Two more baffling exclusions: young guys like Will Smith and Matt Coronato. Smith played in the last two World Championships for the US, scoring 0-7—7 in 12 games across the two tournaments. Coronato went 3-5—8 in 10 games in the 2023 tournament. Feels like those guys are maybe the future of the program, and bringing at least one of them along would have been a thought. But again, lots of spots on the wings are already full.
Let's get to the two most notable snubs, though:
Debate No. 6: Alex DeBrincat
RL: The only thing I can think here is that they just figured the left wing is so loaded they can't make space for him. I don't buy that, and the only thing I can think of here is that he didn't make the Four Nations team, and didn't play at the World Championships. If there's any one player on our snubs list that could play their way onto the Olympic team, I think it's DeBrincat and I don't think it's really all that close. He's only 25 or so games of shooting 19 percent away from making an emphatic case.
CR: This debate is no debate. DeBrincat should’ve at least earned an invite.
Debate No. 7: Thatcher Demko
CR: We’re about 14 months removed from Demko being voted the second-best goaltender in the world. Yes, injuries derailed those 14 months after that, but we’re still talking about an all-world stopper in his 20s. You can’t look me in the eye and tell me that you’d feel more comfortable with Joey Daccord in your crease over Thatcher Demko. It’s not like Daccord was all that great last year and Swayman was downright poor. If the argument is that you want to give your No. 3 a taste of action to better prepare them for 2030, then get Dustin Wolf in there, who, by the way, had better numbers than all the American invites besides Hellebuyck.
RL: I get all the arguments for him, but if we're saying Hellebuyck and Oettinger aren't going anywhere unless they get injured? And Swayman and Daccord got the invites because they were good soldiers on a gold medal-winning World Championships team? I don't think Demko, who went .889 last year and was talked about as a goalie who would have to learn how to play a different way, is the one I'd be bringing along. Maybe you say he has a better track record than Daccord, which is hard to argue, but this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport and it's obvious which guy had the better 2024-25. Will that hold true this coming season? As with everything else, I guess we'll just have to see.
Like Cam said, if you're arguing about a third goalie, I'd rather Wolf be the guy. With Hellebuyck, and Demko both in their mid-30s by the time of the 2030 Olympics, I'd rather have two goalies on the team who are likely to be there as well. Oettinger will be 30ish, Wolf in his mid-20s.
I would say the same about Lane Hutson, Will Smith, and a couple other guys who didn't even get camp invites. Why not get them going in the system a few years before you need them, just so they're acquainted with how everything works?