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How Does the NHL Draft Lottery Work?

11 February 2025
NHL Draft


Photo: Mike Stobe/NHLI

The NHL Draft Lottery is one of the most exciting moments in hockey's offseason, determining which non-playoff teams get the best chance to select future franchise players. But how does the NHL Draft Lottery work, and what are the NHL Draft Lottery rules? Here’s everything you need to know.

What Is the NHL Draft Lottery?

The NHL Draft Lottery is a system used to decide the order of the first 16 picks in the NHL Draft. Instead of automatically awarding the No. 1 overall pick to the team with the worst regular-season record, the league holds a lottery to ensure fairness and prevent teams from deliberately losing games (tanking) to secure a top selection.

The lottery only affects the first round of the draft—after that, the NHL Draft order rules follow the reverse standings from the previous season.

How Does the NHL Draft Lottery Work?

Each non-playoff team is assigned a set of lottery odds based on its finish in the standings. The lower the team’s ranking, the better its chances of winning the lottery.

The lottery itself works like this:

  1. A lottery machine with 14 ping-pong balls creates 1,001 possible four-number combinations.

  2. Each team is assigned a share of those combinations, based on their odds.

  3. A first draw determines which team wins the No. 1 pick.

  4. A second draw determines the No. 2 pick.

  5. If a team from outside the bottom 11 wins, they can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning the worst team in the standings is still guaranteed at least the third overall pick.

After the first two picks are decided, the remaining teams are placed in order of their regular-season standings.

NHL Draft Lottery Rules

The current NHL Draft Lottery rules were last adjusted in 2021. Here are the key points:

  • Only two picks are determined by the lottery (No. 1 and No. 2).

  • A team cannot move up more than 10 spots in the draft order.

  • A team cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span (starting from 2022).

  • If a team in slots 12-16 wins, they move up the maximum 10 spots, and the team with the worst record retains the No. 1 overall pick.

These rules ensure a balance between giving struggling teams a chance at elite talent while maintaining competition integrity.

Let's take a look at the 2023 NHL Draft

In the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery, the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks emerged as the winners of the two lottery draws held on May 8, 2023. Despite entering with the third-best odds (11.5%), Chicago moved up two spots to secure the No. 1 overall pick, ultimately selecting Connor Bedard. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks, who had the best odds (18.5%), and the Columbus Blue Jackets (13.5%) each slid down one spot, with Anaheim landing the No. 2 pick and Columbus selecting at No. 3. This outcome highlighted the unpredictability of the NHL Draft Lottery, where even teams with lower odds can land the most coveted prospects.

2023 Draft Lottery Odds 
Source: https://media.nhl.com/site/asset/public/ext/2022-23/2023DraftLotteryGuide.pdf

Team Odds
Anaheim Ducks 18.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets 13.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 11.5%
San Jose Sharks 9.5%
Montreal Canadiens 8.5%
Arizona Coyotes 7.5%
Philadelphia Flyers 6.5%
Washington Capitals 6.0%
Detroit Red Wings 5.0%
St. Louis Blues 3.5%
Vancouver Canucks 3.0%
Ottawa Senators* 2.5%
Buffalo Sabres 2.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5%
Nashville Predators 0.5%
Calgary Flames 0.5%

* Under the terms of a March 1, 2023, trade, the Ottawa Senators transfered their first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft to the Arizona Coyotes

History of the NHL Draft Lottery

The NHL Draft Lottery was introduced in 1995 as a way to prevent teams from tanking. Over the years, the system has undergone several changes:

  • 1995-2015: Any non-playoff team could win the No. 1 pick, but only one lottery draw was held.

  • 2016: The system expanded to include three draws, meaning the top three picks were all decided by the lottery.

  • 2021: The current system was introduced, limiting teams to moving up 10 spots and preventing them from winning the lottery more than twice in five years.

Some of the biggest lottery winners in history include: