2026 GTHL U16 AAA Playoffs Preview: Can the Toronto Jr. Canadiens win it all?

With the end of March quickly approaching, and the OHL Cup just six weeks away, it’s time to enjoy what is seen by many as one of, if not the toughest paths to qualification for that event: the GTHL playoffs. 

The four teams who make it to Round 2 in the GTHL playoffs will secure a spot in the OHL Cup tournament, while others will hope to hear their name called by the committee for a tournament, or wild card selection spot.

Now that the 33 game regular season has concluded, we watch as the top eight teams battle for GTHL supremacy as well as their berths in the aforementioned OHL Cup. This is one of the more competitive years that this U16 level has seen, with six teams qualifying that one could make an argument for to take home the GTHL title. Below is the format and series lengths in detail for the entire tournament:

With the details out of the way, let's take a look at the round one matchups, and my predictions for what will happen as the tournament goes along.

SERIES A - Toronto Jr. Canadiens (#1) vs. Mississauga Rebels (#8)

Series A will kick off this year's proceedings, playing the first game of the tournament on February 18th. It is very likely that this will be game one of three that will be played in this series. If this matchup extends to four or five games, it should be considered a win for a Mississauga Rebels team that finished 10-18-5 and enters the playoffs as the lowest scoring team in the tournament on a goals-per-game basis (1.88). 

What complicates the scoring matters for the Rebels is they will take on a Toronto Jr. Canadiens team that features one of the top goalies in the league in Marko Mesich, and a stingy, well-rounded backend that is led by 2011 underage phenom Kade O’Rourke. The Jr. Canadiens enter the tournament as the league's best in terms of goals against on a per-game basis (1.27). Offence has not been a concern for the Jr. Canadiens either - 4.55 goals per game. This is good for second in the league.

With more time and space available for high-end Jr. Canadiens forwards, look for Brayden Grima to continue dominating board play while moving pucks off the wall into open ice seamlessly. In open-ice, there are few players as dangerous with the puck in this tournament than Kash Kwajah, who boasts high-end vision, and playmaking. Both Grima and Kwajah should be front and centre offensively in this series. The Jr. Canadiens won the season series 3-0. 

Prediction: Toronto Jr. Canadiens in 3

SERIES B - Vaughan Kings (#2) vs. Toronto Red Wings (#7)

Series B features the high-flying, number two seeded Vaughan Kings, who enter the tournament as the league’s highest scoring team, while the Toronto Red Wings, similar to the Rebels, have struggled to put the puck in the net. They average barely over 2.00 goals per game. 

Like at any level of hockey, but especially in a short best-of-five series, a hot goalie can flip a series on its head, and give a weaker team a chance in every game. The Red Wings’ Mitchell Nouwens is one of the top goalies in the GTHL, and is the lone area of these two teams’ rosters where the Red Wings have the edge. If the Red Wings will have any chance in this series, they will have to keep games close. The backend will be tasked with keeping the Kings to the outside and protecting the house, and this starts with Colton Lapierre. The 6-foot-1, 207-pound, all-situations blueliner is a physical force, and will have to play heavy minutes to keep things close all series long.

The Kings are a powerhouse at the top of their lineup, but their depth is definitely a question. If the Red Wings keep the top producers off the board, the role players on both teams are capable of finding a big goal, or two, during the series. With that said, I expect the Kings difference makers to be… just that. Kane Cloutier has been the leading scorer all year in the GTHL, and I expect that level of production to continue into the playoffs. Very few see the ice as well as Cloutier does, and he just finds ways to get his teammates the puck in incredibly dangerous areas. Evan Fitzgerald is another King that I expect to be a key piece for Vaughan in this series. The cerebral centre impacts the game in every area, and has continued to produce down the stretch in the regular season.

I believe the Kings get past the Red Wings here and punch their ticket to the OHL Cup, but it will remain to be seen if the Kings can finally put all the pieces together and go on a long run. They have struggled all year to get past quarter-final and semifinal games in a number of different tournaments. The Kings won the season series 3-0, but each game was decided by just one goal. Have the Kings saved their best for last?

Prediction: Vaughan Kings in 4

SERIES C - Toronto Marlboros (#3) vs. Mississauga Senators (#6)

As mentioned in the open, I see six teams that have a case to take home the GTHL title this year, and this series features two of those teams. Both have gone to the finals of headline tournaments this year, and have a number of star players that could take over a series. The reality is that one of the Toronto Marlboros or Mississauga Senators will be anxiously awaiting the decision of the OHL Cup selection committee, and will likely have to win a one-game wildcard to punch their ticket to the OHL Cup. Both have done enough this year to earn that nod.

Despite coming in as the lower seed, the Senators won the season series 3-0, with two of the three games being decided by just one goal. It is unclear at this point whether the Senators will be without star centre Matthew Zilinski, who has missed a ton of action since Christmas. If Zilinski can’t go in this series, it changes the outlook significantly. What’s been a two-headed monster with Zilinski and Arjun Nanubhai now becomes a whole lot weaker, and if the Marlies are able to neutralize Nanubhai, they should be in a good position to win the series. 

On the Marlboros’ side, they win the battle in net, with star goalie Egor Sokolov, who has been widely regarded as one of the top goalies in the entire age group, not just the GTHL. On defence, the Marlboros group has continued to grow as the year has gone along. Headlined by the one-man-breakout Jaden Licastro, the Marlboros' backend has continued to improve as the year has gone along, and poses a real threat to any opponent on both sides of the puck. Shane Roche has put himself in contention to be one of the top defenceman chosen in the 2026 OHL Draft, and will log a ton of minutes in all situations alongside Licastro on this playoff run.

The depth scoring for the Marlboros has been an issue for parts of the year, and while I don’t necessarily expect that to change overnight, I think they defend at a higher level, and feature more difference makers who can flip a series on its head with one shot.

Prediction: Toronto Marlboros in 5

SERIES D - Don Mills Flyers (#4) vs. Markham Majors (#5)

While a loss on the final day of the regular season could have impacted the seeding for the Markham Majors, they held on to beat the Red Wings by a final score of 5-4. Both the Majors and Senators finished the season with identical 19-10-4 records, with the edge going to Markham based on head-to-head results. The Don Mills Flyers took the season series 2-1, but the Majors' lone win was a convincing 5-1 final.

The Flyers have felt like one of the more underappreciated teams in not only the GTHL, but in the U16 AAA age group across Ontario this season. While an 18-8-7 regular season record doesn’t jump off the page as overly dominant, they have found ways to win big games, and have seen a ton of success across the marquee tournaments this year. There is a serious case to be made that the Flyers’ d-core, led by Declan McNally and Gavin Godick, is the best that the GTHL has to offer. Between the pipes, Goaltender Owen Loftus is certainly in the mix to be the first goalie off the board out of the GTHL come June’s OHL Draft. While there are some questions with the Flyers’ ability to put the puck in the net, they have shown all year that when the lights get bright, their game elevates. Both Brady Nash and Cole Coristine are incredibly versatile forwards who can impact the game in every area, and score a variety of different ways. Both will need to be clicking for the Flyers to find success.

The Majors have been one of the league's biggest puzzles this season due to their inconsistent play. When they put it all together, you witness a high-flying offence, paired with a physical backend that can contain the rush well. Ronan Quinn is their play driver up front, and when he was suspended early in the new year, the sustained zone time and second chance offence was missing from their game. Additionally, Jack Samek who missed a good chunk of the year is back up to game speed. When on his game, his hands and hockey sense are high-end.

Prediction: Don Mills Flyers in 4

With Round 1 in the books, here is how Round 2 would set up if my predictions were to hold up:

SERIES E - Toronto Jr. Canadiens (#1) vs. Don Mills Flyers (#4)

With both teams having secured an OHL Cup berth, the focus shifts solely to being named GTHL champion, in what is many of these players’ last season in minor hockey.

While I mentioned the Flyers’ ability to get up for big games, I expect that to make this series closer than some might expect, but not much more than that. Not only is the top of the Jr. Canadiens lineup one of the best, I think they have the best depth in the field. Jackson Zinkie may not wow you on the scoresheet, but he is a highly responsible and competitive centre who will help clog the middle lanes and keep the Flyers off the scoresheet. Additionally, defenceman and captain Cooper Ross brings a versatile skillset. He can kill entries off the rush, nip cycle plays in the bud, and make a strong first pass up the ice. In the end, the blend of fire power and depth are too much for Don Mills to handle.

Prediction: Toronto Jr. Canadiens in 4

SERIES F - Vaughan Kings (#2) vs. Toronto Marlboros (#3)

After no upsets (seeding-wise) in the first round, it sets up what I think will be the closest series played up to this point. Both teams boast high-end blueliners, and a number of threats up front that can change the tide of any given game. 

For Vaughan, defenceman Adrian Sgro will have to be a minute muncher in this series. His ability to impact play in his own end and on the offensive side of the puck is invaluable, and he will be relied on heavily to help shut down the Marlboros attack. The key for the Marlboros will be their higher end forwards in Braden Reilly, Miles Reilly, and Michael Warner. If that trio can match the production the Kings get from the top of their roster, the Marlboros have a great chance.

With this series being not far off from a coin flip, I look at a couple different X-Factors. For Vaughan, look no further than Landon Roulston. The 6-foot-2, 183-pound forward has left me wanting more at times this season, but if he can regain the dominance he displayed early in the year, it adds a dynamic second dimension that the Marlboros simply can’t match. For the Marlboros, similar to their first round matchup with the Senators, they win the goalie battle in this series as well. Sokolov has the ability to take over and maybe even steal a game in this series. If Sokolov is at the top of his game, the Kings have shown the propensity to outwardly display frustration, which could allow the underdogs to take command of games.

Prediction: Toronto Marlboros in 5

SERIES G - Toronto Jr. Canadiens (#1) vs. Toronto Marlboros (#3)

If my predictions work their way successfully to the finals, it will set up a final between two of the more storied minor hockey organizations in North America. 

For the Jr. Canadiens, the key to success will be more of the same that has been discussed. Strong goaltending, depth on the back end, and a complete group up front. I don’t expect the Jr. Canadiens to blow teams out of the water, but I do expect them to play a suffocating, mistake free game in all areas.

The Marlboros will likely need exceptional goaltending, and offensive performances to take down the number one seeded Jr. Canadiens. Luckily for them, while it may not be likely, they have the pieces to give the Jr. Canadiens a run for their money. Braden Reilly is one of the more prolific goal scorers in this league, and Miles Reilly has found another gear since the new year. If both of them have a series to remember, and Sokolov can dominate a game or two, the Marlboros will be right there.

Prediction: Toronto Jr. Canadiens in 4